This is obvious, but worth saying: we measure whether times are good in the metrics of the formal economy. Which skews White & middle or upper income, just like being a GOP voter. Which in combo w weighting your poll results creates a confusing picture.

Nope. We measure whether times are good by polls of people saying they feel pretty good about their personal situation. And most voters say they're doing well. www.nytimes.com/2024/05/23/o...

Opinion | America Is Still Having a ‘Vibecession’

Most voters say that they’re doing OK but that the economy is bad.

Toward the “Trump is ahead” part. It’s unclear whether that’s even true. If true, your explanation stands up, but to is worth asking whether it’s true.