If the next Tory leader is Cleverly or Tugenhat, I think they've a decent chance of pulling back something by next GE. If its Badenoch or Jenrick, they've already lost the next election. I don't think the Tories understand what's happening in the south, they are in danger of a 1924 style wipeout

They aren't reading the room. Cleverly talking about deregulation on the day of the Grenfell enquiry publication shows the have no contrition and no new ideas. Given few Tories cared about being a local MP I think they'll find it hard to shift Lib Dems.