Market median fed funds rate for Sep-25 meeting has jumped from 2.88% on 16-Sep to 3.54% as of yesterday. I think most agree the market got way ahead of itself on number of cuts, but I can't help but think its getting ahead of itself on non-cuts.Market median fed funds rate for Sep-25 meeting has jumped from 2.88% on 16-Sep to 3.54% as of yesterday. I think most agree the market got way ahead of itself on number of cuts, but I can't help but think its getting ahead of itself on non-cuts.

Agreed. There's no way they ain't cutting next month.

It's not hard to draw up a case for 25 bp November followed by 50 bp cut in December -The next two jobs numbers come in at more normal levels -Disinflation stays on track -Fed gets beyond the election - And another 75 bp this year to 4.125% still way above 2.9% assumed neutralIt's not hard to draw up a case for 25 bp November followed by 50 bp cut in December -The next two jobs numbers come in at more normal levels -Disinflation stays on track -Fed gets beyond the election - And another 75 bp this year to 4.125% still way above 2.9% assumed neutral