The UK is little different -Jenrick spouting lie after lie in his Tory leadership bid -Starmer lying about Iran’s attack on Israel, claiming they targeted civilians (they didn’t) -A slow relentless corporative takeover of our democracy goose-stepping on And, unfortunately for me, I am awake

Oh poor Robert Jenrick....I could have told him not to expect a cheer for Wolverhampton in Birmingham. I've been to wrestling shows in *Wolverhampton* where nobody has cheered a cheap reference to Wolverhampton. To the Brummies we might as well be the Bermuda Triangle.

I wonder if this event ends up, in the long run, leading to the fall of Starmer's leadership before GE2028 Tbh I've been wondering for a while if the next GE is Rayner V Jenrick or Rayner V Cleverly

It will suit James Cleverly's style if he is the favourite at the end of the ballot. (He puts an emphasis on positive campaigning with his attack lines being implicit contrasts). Jenrick may like focus on "insurgent" change message, (though had been looking at deploying frontrunner advantages too)

Also had what I thought was a bit of a punt on Jenrick the day after the GE. Feeling quite smug that my instincts were bang on this time (after betting on Mordaunt the last two leadership contests)

Ladbrokes now make Cleverly and Jenrick 6/5 joint favourites this morning after the ConHome poll. Cleverly has moved from 6/1 pre-conference

And push a load more people to Lib Dem. Would probably get 20-25%, assuming Jenrick doesn’t completely ruin them.

The most popular transfer combination is Tugendhat to Cleverly (48%) and Jenrick to Badenoch (47%) because politics is dominant. While Jenrick/Tugendhat 5%. This means that 57% have a minority first preference (3/10 the other two) while > 7/10 a first/second preference for a nonwhite candidate

Might it be that Jenrick has fucked it with the special forces stolen valour stuff - seems like the kind of thing elderly Tories would be quite sensitive about?

The least popular first/second preference combination is Jenrick/Tugendhat (5%) ahead of Badenoch/Tugendhat (8%) and Tugendhat/Jenrick (17%). We would expect that if politics dominates (but obviously the opposite should happen if candidate characteristics are central to voting choices)