Also had what I thought was a bit of a punt on Jenrick the day after the GE. Feeling quite smug that my instincts were bang on this time (after betting on Mordaunt the last two leadership contests)

Ladbrokes now make Cleverly and Jenrick 6/5 joint favourites this morning after the ConHome poll. Cleverly has moved from 6/1 pre-conference

And push a load more people to Lib Dem. Would probably get 20-25%, assuming Jenrick doesn’t completely ruin them.

The most popular transfer combination is Tugendhat to Cleverly (48%) and Jenrick to Badenoch (47%) because politics is dominant. While Jenrick/Tugendhat 5%. This means that 57% have a minority first preference (3/10 the other two) while > 7/10 a first/second preference for a nonwhite candidate

Might it be that Jenrick has fucked it with the special forces stolen valour stuff - seems like the kind of thing elderly Tories would be quite sensitive about?

The least popular first/second preference combination is Jenrick/Tugendhat (5%) ahead of Badenoch/Tugendhat (8%) and Tugendhat/Jenrick (17%). We would expect that if politics dominates (but obviously the opposite should happen if candidate characteristics are central to voting choices)

I called my first son “Clement”, after fourteen popes, three antipopes, and the patron saint of metalworkers and blacksmiths (as well as you know who). I guess Jenrick just wanted to put it beyond any doubt what was meant.

It is lucky for Jenrick that Badenoch had a contentious conference, in the eyes of MPs, as his campaign has taken a major blow if that ConHome survey is reflected in another member poll too. 33 votes puts him close to qualifying though

@TelePolitics: 🔺 @JamesCleverly overtakes Robert Jenrick in leadership contest poll of Tory members

Utterly daft to think saying "Tugendhat" or "Jenrick"does that This absurd claim needs an explanation of why the scores shift when candidates change (eg why is Jenrick higher than Tugendhat v Badenoch) Obvs most are giving actual preferences re candidates, not false preferences to hide real ones!