I think 60% is too high (except perhaps if turnout is very low and you're penalizing it based on how low it is). But I think 55% doesn't sound too bad.

Not really, no. Because there is only so much focus and attention to go around. Dems lose election after election for the same reasons I always call out: too much focus on mythical swing voters, and not enough focus on who matters: activating the base. It's 100% about turnout. Which means racism.

The US does not have compulsory voting, so there is no obligation to vote like there is an obligation to follow the laws. Any "moral obligation" to vote only exists in theory, even if true. In the real world, it's up to candidates to run an effective campaign to drive turnout.

It occurs to me that knowing that it’s close could increase turnout

Sox finish 41-121, giving them a 25.3% win% compared to the 1962 Mets (25.0%), so despite having 1 more loss, technically NOT the worst. Did have lower turnout than 62 Mets. Current Mets likely wild card bound.

Montenegro: Podgorica City Assembly election: Preliminary final turnout: 2024: 56.4% (-12.9) 2022: 69.3% 2018: 64.4% 2014: 70.5% 2010: ~65% Source: Center for Democratic Transition (CDT)

That's the kind of threshold that's really hard to design properly, since you're enshrining a math equation based on turnout patterns today, which may or may not have anything to do with the future. Just define the windows for referenda - none of this "August election just for a referendum" BS.

I'd set the threshold based on the portion of eligible voters showing up (whether or not they vote on that issue). If it's high turnout the line should be set at 50%, higher for lower turnout. What you don't want is low-turnout referenda filling the constitution with weird issue group crap.

Very interesting analysis by @tbonier re: Virginia early voting so far, including: "At this point in 2020, 30% of the early turnout reported by this point was mail voting. As of now in VA, it is only 18%" bluevirginia.us/2024/09/sund...

The high turnout police and firefighters who collect massive overtime know he *really* means he'll happily pay them more. And likely create more work for them: the police will get more violent, and the firefighters will have more messes to cleanup in a Trump four years.