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Atlantic Hurricane Milton Intermediate Advisory Number 13A ...HURRICANE AND STORM SURGE WARNINGS ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA... ...RESIDENTS IN FLORIDA ARE URGED TO USE TODAY TO PREPARE FOR MILTON'S ARRIVAL AND EVACUATE IF TOLD TO DO SO BY ... Additional Details Here.

<br /> 924 <br /> WTNT34 KNHC 081154<br /> TCPAT4<br /> <br /> BULLETIN<br /> Hurricane Milton Intermediate Advisory Number 13A<br /> NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024<br /> 700 AM CDT Tue Oct 08 2024<br /> <br /> ...HURRICANE AND STORM SURGE WARNINGS ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE <br /> EAST COAST OF FLORIDA...<br /> ...RESIDENTS IN FLORIDA ARE URGED TO USE TODAY TO PREPARE FOR <br /> MILTON'S ARRIVAL AND EVACUATE IF TOLD TO DO SO BY LOCAL OFFICIALS...<br /> <br /> <br /> SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION<br /> ----------------------------------------------<br /> LOCATION...22.5N 88.8W<br /> ABOUT 100 MI...165 KM NE OF PROGRESO MEXICO<br /> ABOUT 545 MI...880 KM SW OF TAMPA FLORIDA<br /> MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/H<br /> PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 75 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H<br /> MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...929 MB...27.43 INCHES<br /> <br /> <br /> WATCHES AND WARNINGS<br /> --------------------<br /> CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:<br /> <br /> A Storm Surge Warning has been issued from the Volusia/Brevard <br /> County Line northward to the mouth of the St. Mary's River, <br /> including the St. Johns River.<br /> <br /> A Hurricane Warning has been issued for the east coast of Florida <br /> from the Indian River/St. Lucie County Line northward to Ponte <br /> Vedra Beach.<br /> <br /> A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for the southeast coast of <br /> Florida south of the Indian River/St. Lucie County Line to <br /> Flamingo, and for the northeast coast of Florida north of Ponte <br /> Vedra Beach to the mouth of the St. Mary's River.<br /> <br /> The government of Mexico has discontinued all watches and warnings <br /> south of Celestun.<br /> <br /> SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:<br /> <br /> A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...<br /> * West coast of Florida from Flamingo northward to the Suwannee<br /> River, including Charlotte Harbor and Tampa Bay<br /> * East coast of Florida from the Volusia/Brevard County Line <br /> northward to the mouth of the St. Mary's River, including the St. <br /> Johns River.<br /> <br /> A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...<br /> * Celestun to Rio Lagartos<br /> * Florida west coast from Bonita Beach northward to the mouth of the<br /> Suwannee River, including Tampa Bay<br /> * Florida east coast from the Indian River/St. Lucie County Line <br /> northward to Ponte Vedra Beach<br /> <br /> A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...<br /> * Sebastian Inlet to the Volusia/Brevard County Line<br /> * Mouth of the St. Mary's River to Edisto Beach<br /> <br /> A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...<br /> * Rio Lagartos to Cabo Catoche<br /> * Dry Tortugas<br /> * Lake Okeechobee<br /> * Florida west coast from Chokoloskee to south of Bonita Beach<br /> <br /> A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...<br /> * Rio Lagartos to Cancun<br /> * All of the Florida Keys, including Dry Tortugas and Florida Bay<br /> * Lake Okeechobee<br /> * Florida west coast from Flamingo to south of Bonita Beach<br /> * Florida west coast from north of the mouth of the Suwanee River to<br /> Indian Pass<br /> * Florida east coast south of the Indian River/St. Lucie County <br /> Line to Flamingo<br /> * Florida east coast north of Ponte Vedra Beach to the mouth of the <br /> St. Mary's River<br /> <br /> A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...<br /> * Coast of Georgia and South Carolina from north of the mouth of the<br /> St. Marys River to South Santee River, South Carolina<br /> <br /> A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening<br /> inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,<br /> during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a<br /> depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather<br /> Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at<br /> hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons<br /> located within these areas should take all necessary actions to<br /> protect life and property from rising water and the potential for<br /> other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other<br /> instructions from local officials.<br /> <br /> A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected<br /> somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued<br /> 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of<br /> tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside<br /> preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life<br /> and property should be rushed to completion.<br /> <br /> A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are<br /> expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.<br /> <br /> A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-<br /> threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the<br /> coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.<br /> For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather<br /> Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at<br /> hurricanes.gov.<br /> <br /> A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible<br /> within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours<br /> before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force<br /> winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or<br /> dangerous.<br /> <br /> A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are<br /> possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.<br /> <br /> Interests in the remainder of Florida and the northwestern Bahamas<br /> should monitor the progress of this system.<br /> <br /> For storm information specific to your area in the United<br /> States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please<br /> monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service<br /> forecast office. For storm information specific to your area<br /> outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by<br /> your national meteorological service.<br /> <br /> <br /> DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK<br /> ----------------------<br /> At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane Milton was located<br /> near latitude 22.5 North, longitude 88.8 West. Milton is moving<br /> toward the east-northeast near 12 mph (19 km/h). A turn toward the<br /> east-northeast and northeast is expected today and Wednesday. On<br /> the forecast track, the center of Milton is forecast to move just<br /> north of the Yucatan Peninsula today and approach the west coast of<br /> the Florida Peninsula on Wednesday. The hurricane is forecast to<br /> make landfall in Florida Wednesday night.<br /> <br /> Maximum sustained winds are near 145 mph (230 km/h) with higher<br /> gusts. Milton is an extremely dangerous category 4 hurricane on the<br /> Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. While fluctuations in<br /> intensity are expected, Milton is forecast to remain an extremely<br /> dangerous hurricane through landfall in Florida.<br /> <br /> Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from<br /> the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105<br /> miles (165 km).<br /> <br /> The minimum central pressure based on aircraft dropsonde data is <br /> 929 mb (27.43 inches).<br /> <br /> <br /> HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND<br /> ----------------------<br /> Key Messages for Milton can be found in the Tropical Cyclone<br /> Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC<br /> and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml<br /> <br /> STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 4<br /> to 6 feet above ground level along the northern coast of the<br /> Yucatan Peninsula in areas of onshore winds. Near the coast, the<br /> surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.<br /> <br /> The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause<br /> normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters<br /> moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the<br /> following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if<br /> the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...<br /> <br /> Anclote River, FL to Englewood, FL...10-15 ft<br /> Tampa Bay...10-15 ft<br /> Englewood, FL to Bonita Beach, FL...6-10 ft<br /> Charlotte Harbor...6-10 ft<br /> Yankeetown, FL to Anclote River, FL...5-10 ft<br /> Bonita Beach, FL to Chokoloskee, FL...4-7 ft<br /> Suwannee River, FL to Yankeetown, FL...3-5 ft<br /> Chokoloskee, FL to Flamingo, FL...3-5 ft<br /> Volusia/Brevard County Line, FL to Altamaha Sound, GA...3-5 ft<br /> <br /> The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to<br /> the south of the landfall location, where the surge will be<br /> accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding<br /> depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle,<br /> and can vary greatly over short distances. For information<br /> specific to your area, please see products issued by your local<br /> National Weather Service forecast office.<br /> <br /> For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge<br /> inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm<br /> Surge Graphic, available at<br /> hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?peakSurge.<br /> <br /> RAINFALL: Rainfall amounts of 5 to 12 inches, with localized totals<br /> up to 18 inches, are expected across central to northern portions of<br /> the Florida Peninsula through Thursday. This rainfall brings the<br /> risk of life-threatening flash, urban and areal flooding along<br /> with moderate to major river flooding.<br /> <br /> Milton will also produce rainfall totals 2 to 4 inches across the<br /> Florida Keys through Thursday. In addition, rainfall amounts of 2<br /> to 4 inches with isolated totals around 6 inches are expected across<br /> northern portions of the Yucatan Peninsula.<br /> <br /> For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with<br /> Hurricane Milton, please see the National Weather Service Storm<br /> Total Rainfall Graphic, available at<br /> hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk<br /> graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero.<br /> <br /> WIND: Hurricane conditions will continue in the warning area in<br /> Mexico today. Hurricane conditions are possible in the watch areas<br /> in Mexico today, and tropical storm conditions are expected to<br /> continue in tropical storm warning area today.<br /> <br /> Hurricane conditions are expected in the warning area on the west<br /> coast of Florida as early as Wednesday afternoon, with tropical<br /> storm conditions beginning early Wednesday. Hurricane conditions<br /> are expected along the east coast of Florida in the warning areas on<br /> Wednesday night, with tropical storm conditions possible beginning<br /> late Wednesday afternoon. Tropical storm conditions are expected <br /> in the tropical storm warning areas in Florida beginning early <br /> Wednesday and will spread northward through the day. Tropical storm <br /> conditions are possible within the watch area on the east coast of <br /> Florida by Wednesday night and along the Georgia and South Carolina <br /> coasts on Thursday.<br /> <br /> TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible over central and southern<br /> Florida beginning late tonight and continuing through Wednesday<br /> night.<br /> <br /> SURF: Swells generated by Milton are expected to continue to<br /> affect much of the Gulf Coast within the next day or two, and are<br /> likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.<br /> Please consult products from your local weather office.<br /> <br /> <br /> NEXT ADVISORY<br /> -------------<br /> Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.<br /> <br /> $$<br /> Forecaster Berg<br /> <br /> <br />
Hurricane Milton 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
Hurricane Milton 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Hurricane Milton Probabilistic Storm Surge Graphics Image
0
NHnhc-atlc.nws-bot.us

Atlantic Hurricane Milton Intermediate Advisory Number 13A ...HURRICANE AND STORM SURGE WARNINGS ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA... ...RESIDENTS IN FLORIDA ARE URGED TO USE TODAY TO PREPARE FOR MILTON'S ARRIVAL AND EVACUATE IF TOLD TO DO SO BY ... Additional Details Here.

<br /> 000<br /> WTNT34 KNHC 081154<br /> TCPAT4<br /> <br /> BULLETIN<br /> Hurricane Milton Intermediate Advisory Number 13A<br /> NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024<br /> 700 AM CDT Tue Oct 08 2024<br /> <br /> ...HURRICANE AND STORM SURGE WARNINGS ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE <br /> EAST COAST OF FLORIDA...<br /> ...RESIDENTS IN FLORIDA ARE URGED TO USE TODAY TO PREPARE FOR <br /> MILTON'S ARRIVAL AND EVACUATE IF TOLD TO DO SO BY LOCAL OFFICIALS...<br /> <br /> <br /> SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION<br /> ----------------------------------------------<br /> LOCATION...22.5N 88.8W<br /> ABOUT 100 MI...165 KM NE OF PROGRESO MEXICO<br /> ABOUT 545 MI...880 KM SW OF TAMPA FLORIDA<br /> MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/H<br /> PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 75 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H<br /> MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...929 MB...27.43 INCHES<br /> <br /> <br /> WATCHES AND WARNINGS<br /> --------------------<br /> CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:<br /> <br /> A Storm Surge Warning has been issued from the Volusia/Brevard <br /> County Line northward to the mouth of the St. Mary's River, <br /> including the St. Johns River.<br /> <br /> A Hurricane Warning has been issued for the east coast of Florida <br /> from the Indian River/St. Lucie County Line northward to Ponte <br /> Vedra Beach.<br /> <br /> A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for the southeast coast of <br /> Florida south of the Indian River/St. Lucie County Line to <br /> Flamingo, and for the northeast coast of Florida north of Ponte <br /> Vedra Beach to the mouth of the St. Mary's River.<br /> <br /> The government of Mexico has discontinued all watches and warnings <br /> south of Celestun.<br /> <br /> SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:<br /> <br /> A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...<br /> * West coast of Florida from Flamingo northward to the Suwannee<br /> River, including Charlotte Harbor and Tampa Bay<br /> * East coast of Florida from the Volusia/Brevard County Line <br /> northward to the mouth of the St. Mary's River, including the St. <br /> Johns River.<br /> <br /> A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...<br /> * Celestun to Rio Lagartos<br /> * Florida west coast from Bonita Beach northward to the mouth of the<br /> Suwannee River, including Tampa Bay<br /> * Florida east coast from the Indian River/St. Lucie County Line <br /> northward to Ponte Vedra Beach<br /> <br /> A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...<br /> * Sebastian Inlet to the Volusia/Brevard County Line<br /> * Mouth of the St. Mary's River to Edisto Beach<br /> <br /> A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...<br /> * Rio Lagartos to Cabo Catoche<br /> * Dry Tortugas<br /> * Lake Okeechobee<br /> * Florida west coast from Chokoloskee to south of Bonita Beach<br /> <br /> A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...<br /> * Rio Lagartos to Cancun<br /> * All of the Florida Keys, including Dry Tortugas and Florida Bay<br /> * Lake Okeechobee<br /> * Florida west coast from Flamingo to south of Bonita Beach<br /> * Florida west coast from north of the mouth of the Suwanee River to<br /> Indian Pass<br /> * Florida east coast south of the Indian River/St. Lucie County <br /> Line to Flamingo<br /> * Florida east coast north of Ponte Vedra Beach to the mouth of the <br /> St. Mary's River<br /> <br /> A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...<br /> * Coast of Georgia and South Carolina from north of the mouth of the<br /> St. Marys River to South Santee River, South Carolina<br /> <br /> A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening<br /> inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,<br /> during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a<br /> depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather<br /> Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at<br /> hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons<br /> located within these areas should take all necessary actions to<br /> protect life and property from rising water and the potential for<br /> other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other<br /> instructions from local officials.<br /> <br /> A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected<br /> somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued<br /> 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of<br /> tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside<br /> preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life<br /> and property should be rushed to completion.<br /> <br /> A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are<br /> expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.<br /> <br /> A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-<br /> threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the<br /> coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.<br /> For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather<br /> Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at<br /> hurricanes.gov.<br /> <br /> A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible<br /> within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours<br /> before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force<br /> winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or<br /> dangerous.<br /> <br /> A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are<br /> possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.<br /> <br /> Interests in the remainder of Florida and the northwestern Bahamas<br /> should monitor the progress of this system.<br /> <br /> For storm information specific to your area in the United<br /> States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please<br /> monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service<br /> forecast office. For storm information specific to your area<br /> outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by<br /> your national meteorological service.<br /> <br /> <br /> DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK<br /> ----------------------<br /> At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane Milton was located<br /> near latitude 22.5 North, longitude 88.8 West. Milton is moving<br /> toward the east-northeast near 12 mph (19 km/h). A turn toward the<br /> east-northeast and northeast is expected today and Wednesday. On<br /> the forecast track, the center of Milton is forecast to move just<br /> north of the Yucatan Peninsula today and approach the west coast of<br /> the Florida Peninsula on Wednesday. The hurricane is forecast to<br /> make landfall in Florida Wednesday night.<br /> <br /> Maximum sustained winds are near 145 mph (230 km/h) with higher<br /> gusts. Milton is an extremely dangerous category 4 hurricane on the<br /> Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. While fluctuations in<br /> intensity are expected, Milton is forecast to remain an extremely<br /> dangerous hurricane through landfall in Florida.<br /> <br /> Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from<br /> the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105<br /> miles (165 km).<br /> <br /> The minimum central pressure based on aircraft dropsonde data is <br /> 929 mb (27.43 inches).<br /> <br /> <br /> HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND<br /> ----------------------<br /> Key Messages for Milton can be found in the Tropical Cyclone<br /> Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC<br /> and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml<br /> <br /> STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 4<br /> to 6 feet above ground level along the northern coast of the<br /> Yucatan Peninsula in areas of onshore winds. Near the coast, the<br /> surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.<br /> <br /> The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause<br /> normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters<br /> moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the<br /> following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if<br /> the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...<br /> <br /> Anclote River, FL to Englewood, FL...10-15 ft<br /> Tampa Bay...10-15 ft<br /> Englewood, FL to Bonita Beach, FL...6-10 ft<br /> Charlotte Harbor...6-10 ft<br /> Yankeetown, FL to Anclote River, FL...5-10 ft<br /> Bonita Beach, FL to Chokoloskee, FL...4-7 ft<br /> Suwannee River, FL to Yankeetown, FL...3-5 ft<br /> Chokoloskee, FL to Flamingo, FL...3-5 ft<br /> Volusia/Brevard County Line, FL to Altamaha Sound, GA...3-5 ft<br /> <br /> The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to<br /> the south of the landfall location, where the surge will be<br /> accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding<br /> depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle,<br /> and can vary greatly over short distances. For information<br /> specific to your area, please see products issued by your local<br /> National Weather Service forecast office.<br /> <br /> For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge<br /> inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm<br /> Surge Graphic, available at<br /> hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?peakSurge.<br /> <br /> RAINFALL: Rainfall amounts of 5 to 12 inches, with localized totals<br /> up to 18 inches, are expected across central to northern portions of<br /> the Florida Peninsula through Thursday. This rainfall brings the<br /> risk of life-threatening flash, urban and areal flooding along<br /> with moderate to major river flooding.<br /> <br /> Milton will also produce rainfall totals 2 to 4 inches across the<br /> Florida Keys through Thursday. In addition, rainfall amounts of 2<br /> to 4 inches with isolated totals around 6 inches are expected across<br /> northern portions of the Yucatan Peninsula.<br /> <br /> For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with<br /> Hurricane Milton, please see the National Weather Service Storm<br /> Total Rainfall Graphic, available at<br /> hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk<br /> graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero.<br /> <br /> WIND: Hurricane conditions will continue in the warning area in<br /> Mexico today. Hurricane conditions are possible in the watch areas<br /> in Mexico today, and tropical storm conditions are expected to<br /> continue in tropical storm warning area today.<br /> <br /> Hurricane conditions are expected in the warning area on the west<br /> coast of Florida as early as Wednesday afternoon, with tropical<br /> storm conditions beginning early Wednesday. Hurricane conditions<br /> are expected along the east coast of Florida in the warning areas on<br /> Wednesday night, with tropical storm conditions possible beginning<br /> late Wednesday afternoon. Tropical storm conditions are expected <br /> in the tropical storm warning areas in Florida beginning early <br /> Wednesday and will spread northward through the day. Tropical storm <br /> conditions are possible within the watch area on the east coast of <br /> Florida by Wednesday night and along the Georgia and South Carolina <br /> coasts on Thursday.<br /> <br /> TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible over central and southern<br /> Florida beginning late tonight and continuing through Wednesday<br /> night.<br /> <br /> SURF: Swells generated by Milton are expected to continue to<br /> affect much of the Gulf Coast within the next day or two, and are<br /> likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.<br /> Please consult products from your local weather office.<br /> <br /> <br /> NEXT ADVISORY<br /> -------------<br /> Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.<br /> <br /> $$<br /> Forecaster Berg<br /> <br />
Hurricane Milton 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
Hurricane Milton 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Hurricane Milton Probabilistic Storm Surge Graphics Image
1
NHnhc-atlc.nws-bot.us

Atlantic Hurricane Milton Advisory Number 13 issued at Tue, 08 Oct 2024 08:32:24 +0000 ...EXTREMELY POWERFUL HURRICANE MILTON JUST NORTH OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA... ...MILTON POSES AN EXTREMELY SERIOUS THREAT TO FLORIDA AND RESIDENTS ARE URGED TO FOLLOW THE ORDER... Additional Details Here.

<br /> 000<br /> WTNT34 KNHC 080832<br /> TCPAT4<br /> <br /> BULLETIN<br /> Hurricane Milton Advisory Number 13<br /> NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024<br /> 400 AM CDT Tue Oct 08 2024<br /> <br /> ...EXTREMELY POWERFUL HURRICANE MILTON JUST NORTH OF THE YUCATAN<br /> PENINSULA...<br /> ...MILTON POSES AN EXTREMELY SERIOUS THREAT TO FLORIDA AND<br /> RESIDENTS ARE URGED TO FOLLOW THE ORDERS OF LOCAL OFFICIALS...<br /> <br /> <br /> SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION<br /> ----------------------------------------------<br /> LOCATION...22.3N 88.9W<br /> ABOUT 85 MI...140 KM NE OF PROGRESO MEXICO<br /> ABOUT 560 MI...905 KM SW OF TAMPA FLORIDA<br /> MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...155 MPH...250 KM/H<br /> PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 75 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H<br /> MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...924 MB...27.29 INCHES<br /> <br /> <br /> WATCHES AND WARNINGS<br /> --------------------<br /> CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:<br /> <br /> None.<br /> <br /> SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:<br /> <br /> A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...<br /> * West coast of Florida from Flamingo northward to the Suwannee<br /> River, including Charlotte Harbor and Tampa Bay<br /> <br /> A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...<br /> * Celestun to Rio Lagartos<br /> * Florida west coast from Bonita Beach northward to the mouth of the<br /> Suwannee River, including Tampa Bay<br /> <br /> A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...<br /> * Sebastian Inlet to Edisto Beach, including St. Johns River<br /> <br /> A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...<br /> * Rio Lagartos to Cabo Catoche<br /> * Campeche to south of Celestun<br /> * Dry Tortugas<br /> * Lake Okeechobee<br /> * Florida west coast from Chokoloskee to south of Bonita Beach<br /> * Florida east coast from the St. Lucie/Indian River County Line<br /> northward to the mouth of the St. Marys River<br /> <br /> A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...<br /> * Rio Lagartos to Cancun<br /> * Campeche to south of Celestun<br /> * All of the Florida Keys, including Dry Tortugas<br /> * Lake Okeechobee<br /> * Florida west coast from Flamingo to south of Bonita Beach<br /> * Florida west coast from north of the mouth of the Suwanee River to<br /> Indian Pass<br /> <br /> A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for…<br /> * East coast of the Florida Peninsula south of the St. Lucie/Indian<br /> River County Line southward to Flamingo<br /> * Coast of Georgia and South Carolina from north of the mouth of the<br /> St. Marys River to South Santee River, South Carolina<br /> <br /> A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening<br /> inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,<br /> during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a<br /> depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather<br /> Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at<br /> hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons<br /> located within these areas should take all necessary actions to<br /> protect life and property from rising water and the potential for<br /> other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other<br /> instructions from local officials.<br /> <br /> A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected<br /> somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued<br /> 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of<br /> tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside<br /> preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life<br /> and property should be rushed to completion.<br /> <br /> A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are<br /> expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.<br /> <br /> A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-<br /> threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the<br /> coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.<br /> For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather<br /> Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at<br /> hurricanes.gov.<br /> <br /> A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible<br /> within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours<br /> before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force<br /> winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or<br /> dangerous.<br /> <br /> A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are<br /> possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.<br /> <br /> Interests in the remainder of Florida and the northwestern Bahamas<br /> should monitor the progress of this system.<br /> <br /> For storm information specific to your area in the United<br /> States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please<br /> monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service<br /> forecast office. For storm information specific to your area<br /> outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by<br /> your national meteorological service.<br /> <br /> <br /> DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK<br /> ----------------------<br /> At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Milton was located<br /> near latitude 22.3 North, longitude 88.9 West. Milton is moving<br /> toward the east-northeast near 12 mph (19 km/h). A turn toward the<br /> east-northeast and northeast is expected today and Wednesday. On<br /> the forecast track, the center of Milton is forecast to move just<br /> north of the Yucatan Peninsula today and approach the west coast of<br /> the Florida Peninsula on Wednesday. The hurricane is forecast to<br /> make landfall in Florida Wednesday night.<br /> <br /> Maximum sustained winds are near 155 mph (250 km/h) with higher<br /> gusts. Milton is an extremely dangerous category 4 hurricane on<br /> the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. While fluctuations in<br /> intensity are expected, Milton is forecast to remain an extremely<br /> dangerous hurricane through landfall in Florida.<br /> <br /> Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the<br /> center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles<br /> (165 km).<br /> <br /> The estimated minimum central pressure is 924 mb (27.29 inches).<br /> <br /> <br /> HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND<br /> ----------------------<br /> Key Messages for Milton can be found in the Tropical Cyclone<br /> Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC<br /> and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml<br /> <br /> STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 4<br /> to 6 feet above ground level along the northern coast of the<br /> Yucatan Peninsula in areas of onshore winds. Near the coast, the<br /> surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.<br /> <br /> The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause<br /> normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters<br /> moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the<br /> following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if<br /> the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...<br /> <br /> Anclote River, FL to Englewood, FL...10-15 ft<br /> Tampa Bay...10-15 ft<br /> Englewood, FL to Bonita Beach, FL...6-10 ft<br /> Charlotte Harbor...6-10 ft<br /> Yankeetown, FL to Anclote River, FL...5-10 ft<br /> Bonita Beach, FL to Chokoloskee, FL...4-7 ft<br /> Suwannee River, FL to Yankeetown, FL...3-5 ft<br /> Chokoloskee, FL to Flamingo, FL...3-5 ft<br /> Flagler/Volusia County Line, FL to Altamaha Sound, GA...3-5 ft<br /> Sebastian Inlet, FL to Flagler/Volusia County Line, FL...2-4 ft<br /> Altamaha Sound, GA to Edisto Beach, SC...2-4 ft<br /> Dry Tortugas...2-4 ft<br /> St. Johns River...2-4 ft<br /> <br /> The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to<br /> the south of the landfall location, where the surge will be<br /> accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding<br /> depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle,<br /> and can vary greatly over short distances. For information<br /> specific to your area, please see products issued by your local<br /> National Weather Service forecast office.<br /> <br /> For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge<br /> inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm<br /> Surge Graphic, available at<br /> hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?peakSurge.<br /> <br /> RAINFALL: Rainfall amounts of 5 to 12 inches, with localized totals<br /> up to 18 inches, are expected across central to northern portions of<br /> the Florida Peninsula through Thursday. This rainfall brings the<br /> risk of life-threatening flash, urban and aerial flooding along<br /> with moderate to major river flooding.<br /> <br /> Milton will also produce rainfall totals 2 to 4 inches across the<br /> Florida Keys through Thursday. In addition, rainfall amounts of 2<br /> to 4 inches with isolated totals around 6 inches are expected across<br /> northern portions of the Yucatan Peninsula.<br /> <br /> For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with<br /> Hurricane Milton, please see the National Weather Service Storm<br /> Total Rainfall Graphic, available at<br /> hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk<br /> graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero.<br /> <br /> WIND: Hurricane conditions are occurring in the warning area in<br /> Mexico today. Hurricane conditions are possible in the watch areas<br /> in Mexico today, and tropical storm conditions are expected to <br /> continue in tropical storm warning area today.<br /> <br /> Hurricane conditions are expected in the warning area on the west<br /> coast of Florida as early as Wednesday afternoon, with tropical<br /> storm conditions beginning early Wednesday. Hurricane conditions<br /> could begin along the east coast of Florida in the watch areas on<br /> Wednesday night, with tropical storm conditions possible beginning<br /> Wednesday afternoon. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the<br /> tropical storm warning areas in Florida beginning early Wednesday<br /> and will spread northward through the day. Tropical storm conditions<br /> are possible within the watch area on the east coast of Florida by<br /> Wednesday night and along the Georgia and South Carolina coasts on<br /> Thursday.<br /> <br /> TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible over central and southern <br /> Florida beginning late tonight and continuing through Wednesday <br /> night.<br /> <br /> SURF: Swells generated by Milton are expected to continue to<br /> affect much of the Gulf Coast within the next day or two, and are<br /> likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.<br /> Please consult products from your local weather office.<br /> <br /> <br /> NEXT ADVISORY<br /> -------------<br /> Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT.<br /> Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.<br /> <br /> $$<br /> Forecaster Cangialosi<br /> <br />
Hurricane Milton 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
Hurricane Milton 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Hurricane Milton Probabilistic Storm Surge Graphics Image
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"Extrem niedrige Schneespeicher haben ferner dazu geführt, dass im Frühjahr weniger Wasser zur Verfügung stand und demzufolge weniger Wasser abfließen konnte, was vor allem für europäische Flüsse von Bedeutung war" presse.uni-mainz.de/wmo-bericht-...

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NHnhc-atlc.nws-bot.us

Atlantic Hurricane Milton Intermediate Advisory Number 12A ...EXTREMELY POWERFUL HURRICANE MILTON JUST NORTH OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA... ...MILTON POSES AN EXTREMELY SERIOUS THREAT TO FLORIDA AND RESIDENTS ARE URGED TO FOLLOW THE ORDERS OF LOCAL OFFICIALS... Additional Details Here.

<br /> 000<br /> WTNT34 KNHC 080541<br /> TCPAT4<br /> <br /> BULLETIN<br /> Hurricane Milton Intermediate Advisory Number 12A<br /> NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024<br /> 100 AM CDT Tue Oct 08 2024<br /> <br /> ...EXTREMELY POWERFUL HURRICANE MILTON JUST NORTH OF THE YUCATAN <br /> PENINSULA...<br /> ...MILTON POSES AN EXTREMELY SERIOUS THREAT TO FLORIDA AND<br /> RESIDENTS ARE URGED TO FOLLOW THE ORDERS OF LOCAL OFFICIALS...<br /> <br /> <br /> SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION<br /> ----------------------------------------------<br /> LOCATION...22.1N 89.2W<br /> ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM NNE OF PROGRESO MEXICO<br /> ABOUT 585 MI...840 KM SW OF TAMPA FLORIDA<br /> MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...155 MPH...250 KM/H<br /> PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 90 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H<br /> MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...924 MB...27.29 INCHES<br /> <br /> <br /> WATCHES AND WARNINGS<br /> --------------------<br /> CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:<br /> <br /> None.<br /> <br /> SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:<br /> <br /> A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...<br /> * West coast of Florida from Flamingo northward to the Suwannee<br /> River, including Charlotte Harbor and Tampa Bay<br /> <br /> A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...<br /> * Celestun to Rio Lagartos<br /> * Florida west coast from Bonita Beach northward to the mouth of the<br /> Suwannee River, including Tampa Bay<br /> <br /> A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...<br /> * Sebastian Inlet to Edisto Beach, including St. Johns River<br /> <br /> A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...<br /> * Rio Lagartos to Cabo Catoche<br /> * Campeche to south of Celestun<br /> * Dry Tortugas<br /> * Lake Okeechobee<br /> * Florida west coast from Chokoloskee to south of Bonita Beach<br /> * Florida east coast from the St. Lucie/Indian River County Line<br /> northward to the mouth of the St. Marys River<br /> <br /> A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...<br /> * Rio Lagartos to Cancun<br /> * Campeche to south of Celestun<br /> * All of the Florida Keys, including Dry Tortugas<br /> * Lake Okeechobee<br /> * Florida west coast from Flamingo to south of Bonita Beach<br /> * Florida west coast from north of the mouth of the Suwanee River to<br /> Indian Pass<br /> <br /> A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for…<br /> * East coast of the Florida Peninsula south of the St. Lucie/Indian<br /> River County Line southward to Flamingo<br /> * Coast of Georgia and South Carolina from north of the mouth of the<br /> St. Marys River to South Santee River, South Carolina<br /> <br /> A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening<br /> inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,<br /> during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a<br /> depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather<br /> Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at<br /> hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons<br /> located within these areas should take all necessary actions to<br /> protect life and property from rising water and the potential for<br /> other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other<br /> instructions from local officials.<br /> <br /> A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected<br /> somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued<br /> 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of<br /> tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside<br /> preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life<br /> and property should be rushed to completion.<br /> <br /> A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are<br /> expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.<br /> <br /> A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-<br /> threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the<br /> coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.<br /> For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather<br /> Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at<br /> hurricanes.gov.<br /> <br /> A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible<br /> within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours<br /> before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force<br /> winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or<br /> dangerous.<br /> <br /> A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are<br /> possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.<br /> <br /> Interests in the remainder of Florida and the northwestern Bahamas<br /> should monitor the progress of this system.<br /> <br /> For storm information specific to your area in the United<br /> States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please<br /> monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service<br /> forecast office. For storm information specific to your area<br /> outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by<br /> your national meteorological service.<br /> <br /> <br /> DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK<br /> ----------------------<br /> At 100 AM CDT (0600 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Milton was located <br /> near latitude 22.1 North, longitude 89.2 West. Milton is moving <br /> toward the east near 9 mph (15 km/h). A turn toward the east- <br /> northeast and northeast is expected today and Wednesday. On <br /> the forecast track, the center of Milton is forecast to move <br /> just north of the Yucatan Peninsula today and approach the west <br /> coast of the Florida Peninsula on Wednesday. The hurricane will <br /> likely make landfall in Florida Wednesday night.<br /> <br /> Maximum sustained winds are near 155 mph (250 km/h) with higher <br /> gusts. Milton is a powerful category 4 hurricane on the <br /> Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. While fluctuations in <br /> intensity are expected, Milton is forecast to remain an extremely <br /> dangerous hurricane through landfall in Florida.<br /> <br /> Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from<br /> the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80<br /> miles (130 km).<br /> <br /> The most recent minimum central pressure estimated from Hurricane<br /> Hunter aircraft observations is 924 mb (27.29 inches).<br /> <br /> <br /> HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND<br /> ----------------------<br /> Key Messages for Milton can be found in the Tropical Cyclone<br /> Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC<br /> and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml<br /> <br /> STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 4<br /> to 6 feet above ground level along the northern coast of the<br /> Yucatan Peninsula in areas of onshore winds. Near the coast, the<br /> surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.<br /> <br /> The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause<br /> normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters<br /> moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the<br /> following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if<br /> the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...<br /> <br /> Anclote River, FL to Englewood, FL...10-15 ft<br /> Tampa Bay...10-15 ft<br /> Englewood, FL to Bonita Beach, FL...6-10 ft<br /> Charlotte Harbor...6-10 ft<br /> Yankeetown, FL to Anclote River, FL...5-10 ft<br /> Bonita Beach, FL to Chokoloskee, FL...4-7 ft<br /> Suwannee River, FL to Yankeetown, FL...3-5 ft<br /> Chokoloskee, FL to Flamingo, FL...3-5 ft<br /> Flagler/Volusia County Line, FL to Altamaha Sound, GA...3-5 ft<br /> Sebastian Inlet, FL to Flagler/Volusia County Line, FL...2-4 ft<br /> Altamaha Sound, GA to Edisto Beach, SC...2-4 ft<br /> Dry Tortugas...2-4 ft<br /> St. Johns River...2-4 ft<br /> <br /> The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to<br /> the south of the landfall location, where the surge will be<br /> accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding<br /> depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle,<br /> and can vary greatly over short distances. For information<br /> specific to your area, please see products issued by your local<br /> National Weather Service forecast office.<br /> <br /> For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge<br /> inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm<br /> Surge Graphic, available at<br /> hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?peakSurge.<br /> <br /> RAINFALL: Rainfall amounts of 5 to 10 inches, with localized totals<br /> up to 15 inches, are expected across portions of the Florida<br /> Peninsula through Thursday. This rainfall brings the risk of<br /> considerable flash, urban, and areal flooding, along with moderate<br /> to major river flooding.<br /> <br /> Milton will also produce rainfall totals 4 to 7 inches across the<br /> Florida Keys through Thursday. In addition, rainfall amounts of 2<br /> to 4 inches with isolated totals around 6 inches are expected across<br /> northern portions of the Yucatan Peninsula.<br /> <br /> For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with<br /> Hurricane Milton, please see the National Weather Service Storm<br /> Total Rainfall Graphic, available at<br /> hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk<br /> graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero.<br /> <br /> WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the warning area in<br /> Mexico today. Hurricane conditions are possible in the watch areas <br /> in Mexico today, and tropical storm conditions are expected in the <br /> tropical storm warning area today.<br /> <br /> Hurricane conditions are expected in the warning area on the west<br /> coast of Florida as early as Wednesday afternoon, with tropical<br /> storm conditions beginning early Wednesday. Hurricane conditions<br /> could begin along the east coast of Florida in the watch areas on<br /> Wednesday night, with tropical storm conditions possible beginning<br /> Wednesday afternoon. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the<br /> tropical storm warning areas in Florida beginning early Wednesday<br /> and will spread northward through the day. Tropical storm conditions<br /> are possible within the watch area on the east coast of Florida by<br /> Wednesday night and along the Georgia and South Carolina coasts on<br /> Thursday.<br /> <br /> TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible over central and southern<br /> Florida tonight through Wednesday.<br /> <br /> SURF: Swells generated by Milton are expected to continue to<br /> affect much of the Gulf Coast within the next day or two, and are<br /> likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.<br /> Please consult products from your local weather office.<br /> <br /> <br /> NEXT ADVISORY<br /> -------------<br /> Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.<br /> <br /> $$<br /> Forecaster Cangialosi<br /> <br />
Hurricane Milton 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
Hurricane Milton 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Hurricane Milton Probabilistic Storm Surge Graphics Image
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NHnhc-atlc.nws-bot.us

Atlantic Hurricane Milton Advisory Number 12 ...CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE MILTON MOVING NEAR THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA... ...MILTON POSES AN EXTREMELY SERIOUS THREAT TO FLORIDA AND RESIDENTS ARE URGED TO FOLLOW THE ORDERS OF LOCAL OFFICIALS...Additional Details Here.

<br /> 000<br /> WTNT34 KNHC 080238<br /> TCPAT4<br /> <br /> BULLETIN<br /> Hurricane Milton Advisory Number 12<br /> NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024<br /> 1000 PM CDT Mon Oct 07 2024<br /> <br /> ...CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE MILTON MOVING NEAR THE NORTHERN COAST OF<br /> THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...<br /> ...MILTON POSES AN EXTREMELY SERIOUS THREAT TO FLORIDA AND<br /> RESIDENTS ARE URGED TO FOLLOW THE ORDERS OF LOCAL OFFICIALS...<br /> <br /> <br /> SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION<br /> -----------------------------------------------<br /> LOCATION...21.8N 89.9W<br /> ABOUT 35 MI...60 KM NNW OF PROGRESO MEXICO<br /> ABOUT 630 MI...1015 KM SW OF TAMPA FLORIDA<br /> MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...165 MPH...270 KM/H<br /> PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 90 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H<br /> MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...914 MB...26.99 INCHES<br /> <br /> <br /> WATCHES AND WARNINGS<br /> --------------------<br /> CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:<br /> <br /> None.<br /> <br /> SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:<br /> <br /> A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...<br /> * West coast of Florida from Flamingo northward to the Suwannee<br /> River, including Charlotte Harbor and Tampa Bay<br /> <br /> A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...<br /> * Celestun to Rio Lagartos<br /> * Florida west coast from Bonita Beach northward to the mouth of the<br /> Suwannee River, including Tampa Bay<br /> <br /> A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...<br /> * Sebastian Inlet to Edisto Beach, including St. Johns River<br /> <br /> A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...<br /> * Rio Lagartos to Cabo Catoche<br /> * Campeche to south of Celestun<br /> * Dry Tortugas<br /> * Lake Okeechobee<br /> * Florida west coast from Chokoloskee to south of Bonita Beach<br /> * Florida east coast from the St. Lucie/Indian River County Line<br /> northward to the mouth of the St. Marys River<br /> <br /> A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...<br /> * Rio Lagartos to Cancun<br /> * Campeche to south of Celestun<br /> * All of the Florida Keys, including Dry Tortugas<br /> * Lake Okeechobee<br /> * Florida west coast from Flamingo to south of Bonita Beach<br /> * Florida west coast from north of the mouth of the Suwanee River to<br /> Indian Pass<br /> <br /> A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for…<br /> * East coast of the Florida Peninsula south of the St. Lucie/Indian<br /> River County Line southward to Flamingo<br /> * Coast of Georgia and South Carolina from north of the mouth of the<br /> St. Marys River to South Santee River, South Carolina<br /> <br /> A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening<br /> inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,<br /> during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a<br /> depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather<br /> Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at<br /> hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons<br /> located within these areas should take all necessary actions to<br /> protect life and property from rising water and the potential for<br /> other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other<br /> instructions from local officials.<br /> <br /> A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected<br /> somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued<br /> 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of<br /> tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside<br /> preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life<br /> and property should be rushed to completion.<br /> <br /> A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are<br /> expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.<br /> <br /> A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-<br /> threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the<br /> coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.<br /> For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather<br /> Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at<br /> hurricanes.gov.<br /> <br /> A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible<br /> within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours<br /> before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force<br /> winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or<br /> dangerous.<br /> <br /> A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are<br /> possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.<br /> <br /> Interests in the remainder of Florida and the northwestern Bahamas<br /> should monitor the progress of this system.<br /> <br /> For storm information specific to your area in the United<br /> States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please<br /> monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service<br /> forecast office. For storm information specific to your area<br /> outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by<br /> your national meteorological service.<br /> <br /> <br /> DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK<br /> ----------------------<br /> At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Milton was<br /> located near latitude 21.8 North, longitude 89.9 West. Milton is<br /> moving toward the east near 9 mph (15 km/h). This general motion is<br /> expected through tonight followed by a turn toward the east-<br /> northeast and northeast on Tuesday and Wednesday. On the forecast<br /> track, the center of Milton is forecast to move near or just north<br /> of the Yucatan Peninsula tonight and Tuesday, then cross the eastern<br /> Gulf of Mexico and approach the west coast of the Florida Peninsula<br /> on Wednesday.<br /> <br /> Maximum sustained winds are near 165 mph (270 km/h) with higher<br /> gusts. Milton is a potentially catastrophic category 5 hurricane on<br /> the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. While fluctuations in<br /> intensity are expected, Milton is forecast to remain an extremely<br /> dangerous hurricane through landfall in Florida.<br /> <br /> Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the<br /> center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles<br /> (130 km).<br /> <br /> The most recent minimum central pressure estimated from Hurricane <br /> Hunter aircraft observations is 914 mb (26.99 inches).<br /> <br /> <br /> HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND<br /> ----------------------<br /> Key Messages for Milton can be found in the Tropical Cyclone<br /> Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC<br /> and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml<br /> <br /> STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 4<br /> to 6 feet above ground level along the northern coast of the<br /> Yucatan Peninsula in areas of onshore winds. Near the coast, the<br /> surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.<br /> <br /> The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause<br /> normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters<br /> moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the<br /> following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if<br /> the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...<br /> <br /> Anclote River, FL to Englewood, FL...10-15 ft<br /> Tampa Bay...10-15 ft<br /> Englewood, FL to Bonita Beach, FL...6-10 ft<br /> Charlotte Harbor...6-10 ft<br /> Yankeetown, FL to Anclote River, FL...5-10 ft<br /> Bonita Beach, FL to Chokoloskee, FL...4-7 ft<br /> Suwannee River, FL to Yankeetown, FL...3-5 ft<br /> Chokoloskee, FL to Flamingo, FL...3-5 ft<br /> Flagler/Volusia County Line, FL to Altamaha Sound, GA...3-5 ft<br /> Sebastian Inlet, FL to Flagler/Volusia County Line, FL...2-4 ft<br /> Altamaha Sound, GA to Edisto Beach, SC...2-4 ft<br /> Dry Tortugas...2-4 ft<br /> St. Johns River...2-4 ft<br /> <br /> The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to<br /> the south of the landfall location, where the surge will be<br /> accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding<br /> depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle,<br /> and can vary greatly over short distances. For information<br /> specific to your area, please see products issued by your local<br /> National Weather Service forecast office.<br /> <br /> For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge<br /> inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm<br /> Surge Graphic, available at<br /> hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?peakSurge.<br /> <br /> RAINFALL: Rainfall amounts of 5 to 10 inches, with localized totals<br /> up to 15 inches, are expected across portions of the Florida<br /> Peninsula through Thursday. This rainfall brings the risk of<br /> considerable flash, urban, and areal flooding, along with moderate<br /> to major river flooding.<br /> <br /> Milton will also produce rainfall totals 4 to 7 inches across the<br /> Florida Keys through Thursday. In addition, rainfall amounts of 2<br /> to 4 inches with isolated totals around 6 inches are expected across<br /> northern portions of the Yucatan Peninsula.<br /> <br /> For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with<br /> Hurricane Milton, please see the National Weather Service Storm<br /> Total Rainfall Graphic, available at<br /> hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk<br /> graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero.<br /> <br /> WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the warning area in<br /> Mexico within a few hours, with tropical storm conditions currently<br /> occurring. Hurricane conditions are possible in the watch areas in<br /> Mexico tonight and Tuesday, and tropical storm conditions are<br /> expected in the tropical storm warning area tonight.<br /> <br /> Hurricane conditions are expected in the warning area on the west<br /> coast of Florida as early as Wednesday afternoon, with tropical<br /> storm conditions beginning early Wednesday. Hurricane conditions<br /> could begin along the east coast of Florida in the watch areas on<br /> Wednesday night, with tropical storm conditions possible beginning<br /> Wednesday afternoon. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the<br /> tropical storm warning areas in Florida beginning early Wednesday<br /> and will spread northward through the day. Tropical storm conditions<br /> are possible within the watch area on the east coast of Florida by<br /> Wednesday night and along the Georgia and South Carolina coasts on<br /> Thursday.<br /> <br /> TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible over central and southern<br /> Florida Tuesday night through Wednesday.<br /> <br /> SURF: Swells generated by Milton are expected to continue to<br /> affect much of the Gulf Coast within the next day or two, and are<br /> likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.<br /> Please consult products from your local weather office.<br /> <br /> <br /> NEXT ADVISORY<br /> -------------<br /> Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT.<br /> Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.<br /> <br /> $$<br /> Forecaster Pasch<br /> <br />
Hurricane Milton 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
Hurricane Milton 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Hurricane Milton Probabilistic Storm Surge Graphics Image
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