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BNbrendannyhan.bsky.social

Reminder: Expressing concern about threats to democracy doesn't mean I think there's a 100% chance of the worst possible outcomes. Trump would of course face many obstacles and/or not follow through on various threats. However, the probability of such outcomes is unacceptable. That is enough.

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Nsaysceej.bsky.social

Probabilities are valuable for making decisions, but they shouldn’t be the only thing guiding your decision. The issue in 2016 was a lot of people mistook high probability for “landslide” and voted 3rd party as a protest, or just didn’t vote, bc they thought everyone else would do it for them.

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AStompadfoot.bsky.social

I need the clash of the esoteric power titans between Parker Lewis and Zach Morris. Can Zach's Time Stop cancel out Parker's ability to affect probability?

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KGdavidhirsch.bsky.social

We just don't know. My best guess in decreasing order of probability: 1. Harris wins narrowly in the PV and/or EV. 2. Harris wins big and the polls missed it. 3. HWSNBN wins another electoral college inside straight like 8 years ago. If it's 3, America is going to have to go through some things.

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EUenstars-updates.bsky.social

Remember that the Tsukisuta is in 10/27 9:00PM, after the event announcement. The guest is: Kosuke Toriumi (Madara VA) So it's a high probability that one of the members of the next event is Madara. The anniversary group "SPARK" will also probably be announced on this Tsukisuta

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LBlarreau.bsky.social

This makes total sense to me, since the Field of Maths is actually a number of different skills, some more related to each other than others. I get algebra (five minutes after I've studied it). But f**ked if I get probability. Useless. (Still not silly enough to buy Lotto tickets though.)

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Nsaysceej.bsky.social

That’s not actually what the polls said. Most of the polls had Clinton ahead by only 3-4% which would have been within the MOE. 538 had Trump with a 1in 3 chance of winning but probability and percent aren’t the same thing.

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CFcasperfox.bsky.social

Scully: You're suggesting a high school boy can manipulate probability? Mulder: In the last 100 days, Parker Lewis kissed Milla Jovovich, taught The Kube basic math and ran a pirate radio station, each time, a clean win. Scully: Meaning? Mulder: Pack your bags Scully. We're headed to Santo Domingo.

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Lleona-1441.bsky.social

Well, whats happening in my country isnt because of Elon, its still bc of the government trying to cut off the communications But there is a high probability that they confuse this with twt or they not even know what app this is it is very beneficial that the app is more popular in these moments 😅

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JBjohnbrownstan.bsky.social

It won't be 50/50. It'll end with an R advantage with high probability. The point is that you can only read so much into partisan breakdowns

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