Honestly, I think the best explanation for why Trump is ahead even when crime is down and the economy is doing well: Good times are good for Republicans. Voter complacency is their best friend. We see this going back to at least 2000.

Here in the UK nothing works and the Conservatives are headed for a record-breaking defeat, which tends to support your theory.

😳🤬 They vast majority of Trump's #MAGA#voters#Trump models for and gives them permission to be their worst possible selves in a 🔴💀🔴 cult of worst possible selves.

polling is changing- he's not ahead

When people are feeling safe in their homes and in their jobs, they feel free to indulge right wing propaganda. When they feel safe, it's easier to get all wound up about "cancel culture" or other bullshit. But when they're scared, they run back to Democrats, who they know will take care of them.

This is obvious, but worth saying: we measure whether times are good in the metrics of the formal economy. Which skews White & middle or upper income, just like being a GOP voter. Which in combo w weighting your poll results creates a confusing picture.

I’d quibble with ’04, when I think being scared of Islamic terrorism was still enough of a thing to drive a lot of W’s support. But I guess the big play they made on gay marriage indicates that terrorism had lost a lot of its power as an issue