In Jenrick (a complete idiot) wins I'd not bet on the Tories even existing in any meaningful sense by the next election. None of them have shown any capacity to understand why they lost, steps they need to regain trust, their pitiful support by the young or non-existent local organisation.

If the next Tory leader is Cleverly or Tugenhat, I think they've a decent chance of pulling back something by next GE. If its Badenoch or Jenrick, they've already lost the next election. I don't think the Tories understand what's happening in the south, they are in danger of a 1924 style wipeout