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Jeffrey Lewis
@armscontrolwonk.bsky.social
Professor at the Middlebury Institute, host of the Arms Control Wonk Podcast & member of the State Department Int’l Security Advisory Board. All opinions are my own.
2.6k followers66 following182 posts

The initial reaction among the James Martin CNS OSINT team is we're seeing more debris from newer Fattah-1 solid-fuel missiles than we did in April, which may explain the apparently more successful nature of the strike -- although it's early and more data could change our minds.

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The missile that China tested is visually identical to a DF-31A (CSS-10 Mod 2). There has previously been a debate over whether the DF-31AG launcher has a new missile with multiple warheads or just a regular CSS-10 Mod 2. This launch suggests that it just has a regular CSS-10 Mod 2.

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I am still re-processing old satellite images with my modern computer. Here is a false-color LANDSAT image from April 29, 1986, pan-sharpened with a SPOT image taken a few days later. Note how much better this looks than what was actually distributed in 1986.

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Probably between one-third and one-half.

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The TV was just in time.

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Kim Jong Un visited a plant enriching uranium for nuclear weapons. We're pretty sure it's the Kangson enrichment plant that we identified back in the day. We only have internal images, but they are a good match for construction photos of the main hall in 2002-2003 and the annex in 2024.

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JLarmscontrolwonk.bsky.social

We bought a new TV for the office.

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Decker did the finding!

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I am curious which events you are referencing!

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Profile banner
JL
Jeffrey Lewis
@armscontrolwonk.bsky.social
Professor at the Middlebury Institute, host of the Arms Control Wonk Podcast & member of the State Department Int’l Security Advisory Board. All opinions are my own.
2.6k followers66 following182 posts