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Jeffrey Lewis
@armscontrolwonk.bsky.social
Professor at the Middlebury Institute, host of the Arms Control Wonk Podcast & member of the State Department Int’l Security Advisory Board. All opinions are my own.
2.6k followers66 following182 posts

Probably between one-third and one-half.

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Decker did the finding!

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I am curious which events you are referencing!

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No worries!

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The date and lat/long are in the lower right hand corner of both images. Landsat-4 image courtesy of the U.S. Geological Survey, March 28, 1984, 72.5N, 178.5E

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We are, in fact, two different humans.

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Exactly. “We intercepted everything, don’t despair” is a perfectly sensible thing for Kyiv to say. Unfortunately, so is “Are you nuts? We’re not intercepting much at all. Give us all the long-range strike systems you have.”

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3. Even accounting for 1 and 2, the hit rate is lower than enthusiasts would like to believe. 4. My view is still that the better use of defense dollars and production is targeting launchers with offensive missiles. 5. Defense is often an excuse by some (GER) to refuse to provide that offense.

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A lot of the response focuses on "this doesn't mean the defenses miss the interceptors" so let me save you time. 1. Yes, defenses arrived in Ukraine late. 2. Yes, I know there aren't enough defenses to defend everywhere (that's my point, actually).

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JLarmscontrolwonk.bsky.social

Love the compliment but am definitely not right-leaning.

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Profile banner
JL
Jeffrey Lewis
@armscontrolwonk.bsky.social
Professor at the Middlebury Institute, host of the Arms Control Wonk Podcast & member of the State Department Int’l Security Advisory Board. All opinions are my own.
2.6k followers66 following182 posts