Our earthquake control is Hatay, where a terrible CHP incumbent candidate managed to buck the massive trend and lose. So yes, this looks like a local phenomenon but it is a wild and completely unexpected swing. Your aşiret point will stand up if previously 110% (!) boxes have switched en masse.

The fact it is so unexpected points to likely weird local shit which happens. CHP’s mayoral candidate got double the votes that the CHP got in the provincial council. Points to mayoral candidate