With his aggregator, Nevin Michael got the polling closer to the final result than everyone else in 2020 and 2022. He did this by eliminating all the junk polls and the ones that were purely GOP fantasy vehicles. You might be interested in his current results. 🧵

Normally, my inner American looks at British people trying to make sense of American electoral politics the way my inner Brit usually looks at Americans trying to say Worcestershire or Derby. Some pointlessly insane things just won't make sense to foreigners. But this seems very solid.

This is great for soothing my current anxiety. Thanks.

Any chance he’s on Bluesky here? Found a link to another platform, but I’m not joining Threads as I value what little sanity I’ve managed to keep hold of after 56 years…

📌

Thanks Mark. Fingers crossed.

How did Michael do in 2016? HRC had an 80+% chance of winning going into Election Day as I recall. Regardless: #AllGasNoBrakes until Election Day 2024. Phone calls, text, postcards, door knocking. We don't want to wake up on November 6 and wish we'd done more.

Thanks for the hope but I'm unfamiliar with Nevin Michael. Can you tell me about him?

I was monitoring 538 for a while but their weighting of polls is having problems when the same pollsters have quite contradictory results in similar states (e.g. Harris being crushed in Georgia but winning NC seems unlikely)

National: 🔵 Harris +3.6 🔵 PA: Harris +2.7 🔵 MI: Harris +2.2 🔵 WI: Harris +2.1 🔵 NV: Harris +2.4 🔴 AZ: Trump +1.1 🔴 GA: Trump +1.1 🔵 NC: Harris +0.4 🔴 FL: Trump +3.7 🔵 NE-2: Harris +7.5

Thank you for this Mark. Though hopeful it still fills me with dismay that enough people with enough money will fund and support hate, division, incompetence and utter stupidity, that will negatively impact the world and the USA'S leadership of it, at a time of huge global challenges.