In Jean-François Perrin's model, core inflation falls below 2.0% in 2025, driven by base effects in “services with resets”, i.e. car insurance prices. Goldman Sachs also expects a significant decline in insurance inflation, which would help push core inflation down to 2.1% by the end of 2025.

Meanwhile, the outcome of the US presidential election remains completely unclear, as the chart below shows – so there is not much point in betting on the extent of the Fed's interest rate cuts in 2025.