New paper, led by undergrad(!!!) student Abby McDonnel. Written with a broad audience of practitioners in mind. Discounting ‘Hot’ Climate Models may lead to overconfident predictions. agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.... 1/
Using historical warming to weight climate models can improve global predictions of annual temperature change and precipitation change Using past warming to weight future climate projections has ...
We used cross-validation (treating other models as pseudo-observations) to ask the question "Does Discounting ‘Hot’ Climate Models Improve the Predictive Skill of Climate Model Ensembles?" The answer: it depends. 2/
"'changes in regional precipitation in the mid-latitudes and tropics are ‘dynamically controlled'" Hmmm. tropical precip is 50-70% from local water recycling, and temperate is maybe a bit less. At any rate, there is some major lack of thermodynamic considerations from geophysicists.
I find it crazy that they restrict their use of models for unprecedented conditions to ones that think they are in the conditions of the past.
Will read it with interest. 'It depends' is the reason why I like a 'plausible + diverse' framework', especially for regional projections and when the purpose is to inform decisions or downstream modeling.