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David Epstein
@davidnotdave.bsky.social
Literature major, then neuroscience Ph.D., then addiction researcher. Enough-knowledge-to-endanger-myself in social sciences and statistics. He/him. Views my own.
110 followers118 following20 posts
DEdavidnotdave.bsky.social

Ah, but that brings us to whether a CI is a cat's-eye or a cliff. I'm a cat's-eye guy myself.

Two screenshots from competing papers. Geoff Cumming, 2013: "A value close to the center of the CI is about 7 times as likely to be u as is a value near a limit of the 95% CI. Thus, the black area is the likelihood profile, or beautiful 'shape' of the 95% CI. Our CI defines an interval of plausible values for u, but plausibility varies smoothly across and beyond the interval, as the cat's-eye picture indicates." John Kruschke and Torrin Liddell, 2018: "Notice that a confidence interval has no distributional information. There is no direct sense by which parameter values in the middle of the confidence interval are more probable than values at the ends of the confidence interval. This absence of distributional information is why the confidence interval in Fig. 3 is drawn as a flat line."
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DEdavidnotdave.bsky.social

And furthermore, I might be willing to die on the same hill as these fellas...

John Hoenig and Dennis Heisey: "We feel that researchers often do not need a rigorous understanding of confidence intervals to use them to good advantage. Although we cannot demonstrate it formally, we suspect that imperfectly understood confidence intervals are more useful and less dangerous than imperfectly understood p values and hypothesis tests. For example, it is surely prevalent that researchers interpret confidence intervals as if they were Bayesian credibility regions; to what extent does this lead to serious practical problems? .... If informally motivated confidence intervals lead to better science than rigorously motivated hypothesis testing, then perhaps the rigor normally presented to students destined to be applied researchers can be sacrificed."
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DE
David Epstein
@davidnotdave.bsky.social
Literature major, then neuroscience Ph.D., then addiction researcher. Enough-knowledge-to-endanger-myself in social sciences and statistics. He/him. Views my own.
110 followers118 following20 posts
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