It’s going to come down to turnout. The electricity Kamala is creating has me optimistic about that, but there’s 3+ months till Election Day, and they’re going to spend all of it trying to smear her since they can’t win on issues or charisma. Their only chance is to win by character assassination.

I do think there’s legit 50–50 chance of a 2008 level blowout. But I think our base case needs to be another election that comes down to turnout in a few swing states.

They lie like rugs