A lot of people seem to have developed very concrete views about the next election result, particularly that Labour will lose, despite a) it being four years away and b) the Tories having made no progress in fundamentals polling.

Of course it's top early to predict, but I should point out that 33.7% vote share is not enough for a Labour majority in most circumstances, only the SNP collapse and the help of Nigel Farage made this majority possible.

Are they the same people who in February 2020 thought Labour couldn't win the next election?

The ability to make a reasoned election prediction requires a some level of closeness and, crucially, some evidence. At this stage, even talking about a 'probable' result is downright moronic, let alone likely ones.

In Jenrick (a complete idiot) wins I'd not bet on the Tories even existing in any meaningful sense by the next election. None of them have shown any capacity to understand why they lost, steps they need to regain trust, their pitiful support by the young or non-existent local organisation.

History & lived experience likely play a part.

even posing the question rather than focusing on issues of governance and policy demonstrates a superficial bookies attitude to politics. What Labour do and why and how it plays out over the next 2- 3 years should be the focus of attention. GE Polls might as well be mothballed until at least then.

Precious few concrete views about the next election result are justified right now. I am willing to predict that some Labour, Conservative, and Liberal Democrat MPs will be elected - that's about as far as I think it's sensible to go.

Five* years!