A lot of people really discount the Russian mobilization as one of the big turning points of the war and I'm not sure why

And throwing 6-6.5% of GDP at defense spending. Sure, I don't think the Russians are juggernauts who can continue doing this forever. They are hemorrhaging systems at rates they can't replace, but they have also stepped up usage of force multipliers.

I think buzzy tech and discourse heavy developments (F-16, long range strike) have obscured how crucial and decisive mobilizing mass has been in this war for both sides.