Global fossil CO₂ emissions need to decline >5%/year. This is just not happening. Each year that emissions keep rising makes it even harder to reach the Paris targets & locks the world into even more climate impacts. (preliminary 2023 estimate) inews.co.uk/news/environ...

Indeed, it's just not happening. Those suggesting +1.5°C (or indeed 2°) targets are 'still alive' are part of the problem IMO. Such talk suggests things could be okay, just need to push a little harder etc. No, current strategy is failing, it needs to be called out, recognised, try something else.

If you want to avoid a recession of GDP/capita, you'd need to improve carbon efficiency (CO2/GDP) by more than 6 % per year, ten times the historical value. If you don't succeed, the GDP per capita would collapse by the difference, giving a huge decrease after some decades (-50 % or so). That's why.