The Offshore Directorate also produces short term projections, to 2033, and the "base case" in the previous slide requires accessing resources (not yet found or too expensive to extract). To follow the high case, would require massive investment in new exploration. 2/

Norway (e.g., Perspectivmelding) argues that petroleum production will naturally fall in line with the range of IPCC scenarios consistent with 1.5°C (this assumes all sectors pull all stops to reduce emissions, which is not happening). [IPCC range is global a average] 3/