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Scott Robeson
@indianaclimate.bsky.social
Climatologist, environmental scientist, statistician, and geographer (in the USA) | FirstGen | UDel and UBC grad | Grower of food and lover of plants and birds | Partner of bsky.app/profile/teresarobeson.bsky.social
1.3k followers586 following663 posts

Good summary by Gavin of this recent article. The only way that more cold extremes could happen in a warming climate is for the warming to be accompanied by increased interdiurnal variability (such as in the bottom figure below). That's both unlikely and atypical, at least in the mid-latitudes.

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The reason I said atypical is that these results for the USA show that most places experience a decrease (filled circles) or no change (plus signs) in the standard deviation of daily temperature with an increase in mean temperature. www.int-res.com/abstracts/cr...

Map of the regression slope using standard deviation of Tmin as the response and mean Tmin as predictor.
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APacaciapepler.bsky.social

There are some midlatitude areas where a drying trend led to decreases in overnight minimums/increases in frost, but I think that was only true for smallish levels of warming and gets overwhelmed by the warming trend eventually.

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SR
Scott Robeson
@indianaclimate.bsky.social
Climatologist, environmental scientist, statistician, and geographer (in the USA) | FirstGen | UDel and UBC grad | Grower of food and lover of plants and birds | Partner of bsky.app/profile/teresarobeson.bsky.social
1.3k followers586 following663 posts