A lot of work went into this, and I'm happy it's out now! Hopefully the start of something big :)
New paper on Forecasting with Agent-Based Models from Sam Wiese, Jagoda Kaszowska-Mojsa, @joelnmdyer.bsky.social, @j0mrn.bsky.social, Marco Pangallo, Francois Lafond, John Muellbauer, Ani Calinescu, @doynefarmer.bsky.social #Complexity #EconSky www.inet.ox.ac.uk/publications...
In the last few years, economic agent-based models have made the transition from qualitative models calibrated to match stylised facts to quantitative…
And to add a more "mainstream" reference, you're likely aware of this by Mejean's group, www.dropbox.com/s/t6fvtm7kzc... I seriously think these things are impossible to capture in equilibrium models
Colleagues of mine showed that a dynamical model informed with good priors on inventoried lead to good predictions, see eg www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...www.nature.com/articles/s41... Curious to hear your thoughts
We introduce a dynamic disequilibrium input-output model that was used to forecast the economics of the COVID-19 pandemic. This model was designed to …
These things are difficult if not impossible to tackle with standard econ models, but people in the ABM litterature have also tackled this (eg Inoue and Todo or Hallegatte). They reach the almost trivial conclusion that inventories matter in supply chain resilience
I agree with pretty much everything you've said -- but in that case shouldn't we be building *dynamic* models? This is wildly different from equilibrium network models à la Acemoglu-Carvalho Plot from Sterman's "operational and behavioral causes of supply chain instability"
Isn't it all just Fourier transforms?