the polls and the forecasts are not the election. at most they are representations of potential outcomes. the election is being fought out right now, on the ground, and the only way we’ll be able to impose a narrative on it is after the fact
Exactamundo
And variation is high because we're in the middle of a big realignment, no? So category behavior and predictions are in serious flux and hard to track, no?
Polls predicted HRC would win in 2016 (she didn't). Polls predicted a red wave in 2022 (didn't happen). Polls need to be interpreted, &, at best, they're a snapshot of a single moment.
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Polls are bought… votes are not.
I remember how the right tried to make a story out of “you can’t trust the mainstream media because they all predicted Hillary was going to win”. Predicting is not reporting
Have you considered that we can impose a narrative on it right now in order to game prediction markets? Much too consider
But how does that help us panic right now?
I ignore the polls. Talk to your neighbors, get out the vote. Convince your Republican friends to not vote for Trump.
In fact I remember 2 years ago when a dozen firms came out of the woodwork to gunk the averages rightward. I think it's deliberate and meant to demoralize and poison other pollsters' assumptions