The short-run effects are likely to be small as parents would likely try to avoid changing school mid-way through primary or secondary school BUT, we might get some clues from changing enrolments at key starting points like age 5, 7 and 11 /3

The data reported shows a 1.7% drop in overall pupil numbers and a 4.6% drop in year 7 enrolments This is basically consistent with what we’d expect It’s also important to note that new enrolments fell by 2.7% last year too /4