Pleased to have played a role in this work: the 1 year-lagged impact of ENSO in the extratropics far exceeds the expected effect due to ENSO autocorrelation, and we propose large-scale atmospheric angular momentum anomalies propagating polewards as a mechanism. www.science.org/doi/10.1126/...
We demonstrate a 1-year lagged extratropical response to the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in observational analyses and climate models. The response maps onto the Arctic Oscillation and is stro...
September stats for the UK.. For Bedfordshire and Oxfordshire, September 2024 was the wettest calendar month the counties have experienced, in a series dating back to 1836! www.metoffice.gov.uk/about-us/new...
It has been the wettest September on record for some counties, according to provisional Met Office figures, though no national monthly records have been broken.
We're seeing news of 1 in a 1000 year rainfall events, and of rivers reaching record height from Helene For a while, something has worried me about estimates of flood and precipitation return levels in the South and Southeast US, and (for once) it's not climate change. 1/
Context for the cold summer (that wasn't actually that cold) in the UK this year.
Actually ignore me - a negative NAO in September is linked to more rainfall, consistent with the wet end to September and the opposite of the NAO relationship in DJF.
Interesting - very much does not feel like negative NAO weather with all of the rain in the UK!
In the UK you not only get that leg of your journey refunded, but for a return ticket you get the entire thing refunded and it's all online. A very underrated aspect of the UK system.
Overall this work shows that highly impactful summers like 2022 can be predictable, though much of this is derived from GHG trends and soil moisture, rather than atmospheric circulation.