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Mike Cassidy
@mikevolc.bsky.social
Volcanologist, Associate Professor at University of Birmingham in the School of Geography, Earth and Environmental Science. Affiliated with the Centre for the Study of Existential Risk (Cambridge) and Oxford Uni Earth Sciences. #firstgen
166 followers113 following16 posts
MCmikevolc.bsky.social

This paper could have been much longer and there's some things we don't cover in as much detail as we would have liked, but it serves as first discussion of this notion in volcanology, should we ever decide to go down this route in decades/centuries to come. END

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MCmikevolc.bsky.social

If volcano geoneringering ever becomes a discipline, we lay out some guiding principles, slightly adapting the 'Oxford principles' from Climate geoengineering.

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MCmikevolc.bsky.social

We come to the conclusion that volcano engineering should not be conducted in the short-term. Currently, we know so little about whether it could be safe or effective. BUT we do argue there's a strong moral case for conducting research to see it ever could be in the future.

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MCmikevolc.bsky.social

There are many ethical considerations, such as uncertainty, justice and equality, risk communication, acts-omission asymmetry, biodiverity, miltary uses, safety, culture and governance we all cover in the paper. shorturl.at/DXYZ5 e.g.

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MCmikevolc.bsky.social

Lasty, the consistent threat of volcanoes, esp large eruptions (1 in 6 per century) that pose global catastrophic risks, means the question of whether we can intervene will keep arising. We support a proactive and informed debate before society tries anything in an emergency.

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MCmikevolc.bsky.social

Also, increased research on solar radiation management, means that our our understanding of the stratosphere and how to manipulate it is likely to increase, especially should we want to reverse any stratospheric injections. E.g. 2nd type of volc geoengineering we outline (below)

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MCmikevolc.bsky.social

2) In the future we think volcano geoengineering might become more likely. More renewable energy needs like supercritical geothermal, brine mining for critical metals and Carbon sequestration, will mean drilling closer to volcanic plumbing systems, with potential interactions.

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MCmikevolc.bsky.social

Though there is precedent for a more consequentialist approach, one that weighs potential positive and negative consequences equally (cost-benefit). One such incidence was the successful prevention of limnic (lake gas) eruptions in Cameroon. www.nature.com/articles/466...

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MCmikevolc.bsky.social

The history of volc geoengineering has come with varying success and failures. But the geoethics of such decisionmaking has never been discussed. Many volcanologists support a precautionary approach, where deontological constraints weigh heavily over any benefits.

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MCmikevolc.bsky.social

There's even been various propositions of bombing volcanoes to use as weapons during the 2nd world war! Both from the US side (Mt Fuji, Japan) and the UK (bombing Mt Vesuvius) see MPs discussing this.

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MC
Mike Cassidy
@mikevolc.bsky.social
Volcanologist, Associate Professor at University of Birmingham in the School of Geography, Earth and Environmental Science. Affiliated with the Centre for the Study of Existential Risk (Cambridge) and Oxford Uni Earth Sciences. #firstgen
166 followers113 following16 posts