New piece, on the 3 arguments against recent inflation being a cost-push supply shock: - why wasn't there deflation? - why was inflation broad? - what about job openings? and giving a sense of what we know. Using @ivanwerning.bsky.socialmikekonczal.substack.com/p/the-three-...

The Three Open Questions When it Comes to Our Cost-Push Supply Shock Inflation

In which we seek to lock down better answers for everything that just happened in light of the historic disinflation of the past year.

My slides for a presentation on the evolution of the inflation debate since 2021, and the case for 2023's disinflation being supply-side driven, that I gave at IEA this past week. Some fun stuff for both newbies and veterans of the past three years. www.mikekonczal.com/IEA_presenta...

Major narrative violation in accommodation & food services wage growth. If sticky wages were an inflation threat, this low pre-requisite industry is where you would expect to see it. Instead, collapsed to lowest growth rate in years. QoQ Ann. % chg shown. #NumbersDay

Here's a question for #econsky : what explains this level of deceleration of nominal wages alongside low unemployment? They have dropped a sustained 1-2 percentage points (even as real wages grow), which doesn't happen outside recessions or unemployment. I have my thoughts, but curious to yours.

So, I miss being able to talk through economics on the forum turned hellsite. Not sure there are enough people I want to reach here, but let’s see. Here’s a 🧵on where I stand on current macro.

So what was the 2021-2 inflation surge about? The most parsimonious explanation is that we had a huge supply shock from the pandemic, far more persistent than I among others imagined, which nonetheless eventually got resolved 6/ rooseveltinstitute.org/wp-content/u...

mikekonczal.substack.com/p/will-the-l... Deep dive into some of the empirics of disinflation and the theory that the “last mile” will be the hardest. Came away from the exercise that these arguments, which may or may not be true, don’t jump out in the data so far. 📈📉

Will The ‘Last Mile’ Of Inflation Be the Hardest? Three Reasons Why It May Not.

A place to organize my thoughts, debut my new inflation density app, put code somewhere, and outline some things I'm watching on the inflation front as we go into the end of 2023.

Hi, I'm Jaime and I've been working for 8 years for the Wikimedia Foundation. The following are personal views and do not represent in any way the position of the Foundation (I don't and cannot speak on behalf of it). However, you may have seen this question by Mr. Musk and I wanted to respond A 🧵:

The Federal Reserve's important triannual "Survey of Consumer Finance" - where a lot of wealth data comes from - apparently comes out Thursday, October 19th. It's for 2022, after last being updated in 2019. What are people going to be looking for? What are first checks? #EconSky 📉📈

Test run for where I think I'm going to land: automated monthly analysis of BLS numbers on my webpage, with a quick BLUF added. I don't think the frantic "1/x" posting lives on after twitter, and that's ok. Blogs were great, we should bring them back! Thoughts? #CPIwww.mikekonczal.com/cpi.html