Is this post-pandemic? At least in the late-aughts people were out past midnight (if not NYC hours).

SLC Punk!

In 2012, Romney campaigned on getting unemployment down to 6% by 2016, to give you a sense of how diminished full employment expectations were back then: abcnews.go.com/blogs/politi...

What data is this from?

@pkrugman.bsky.social one thing that jumps out is that we already did the “the Beveridge Curve is a mess” thing in the 2010s, here’s a headline that’s not even 10 years old. That people went from using it for intuition to assuming structural conditions was a mistake we already did.

Major narrative violation in accommodation & food services wage growth. If sticky wages were an inflation threat, this low pre-requisite industry is where you would expect to see it. Instead, collapsed to lowest growth rate in years. QoQ Ann. % chg shown. #NumbersDay

It’s interesting that as openings decline, labor market matching efficiency has stayed flat given the hire rate is also proportionately falling. Double bad news for the Beveridge space folks.

What do you see lining up? Things now, or just that the Fed might not cut until its too late next year?

Here's a question for #econsky : what explains this level of deceleration of nominal wages alongside low unemployment? They have dropped a sustained 1-2 percentage points (even as real wages grow), which doesn't happen outside recessions or unemployment. I have my thoughts, but curious to yours.

So, I miss being able to talk through economics on the forum turned hellsite. Not sure there are enough people I want to reach here, but let’s see. Here’s a 🧵on where I stand on current macro.