Our new explainer looks at the key things Americans should know about election polling this year: www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/... One key point: While polling methods have diversified greatly in recent years, not all methods are equally sound. Caveat emptor.
We put together a little grab-bag of things to know about election polling in the US, for example that polling methods are quite different today than in 2016, that the margin of sampling error captures just one of several kinds of error, and much more pewrsr.ch/3iay5d5
The real environment in which polls are conducted bears little resemblance to the idealized settings presented in textbooks.
The party ID is from NPORS and can be filtered on registration in the survey, while the registration parameter itself comes from the CPS
Now available from Pew Research Center: the annual National Public Opinion Reference Survey (NPORS), which interviewed 5,626 U.S. adults identified via address-based sampling with a 32% response rate. View key estimates and download the data: pewrsr.ch/3ukleLR
NPORS is an annual survey of U.S. adults conducted by the Pew Research Center used to to produce benchmark estimates for several topics.
it's not a slam dunk decision, but we think it's better to use a presidential year estimate than a more recent off-year estimate
This week we released a new version of our short course “Public Opinion Polling Basics.” In six short lessons, I discuss why we have polls, how polls work, the challenges facing polls, what to look for in a poll, and more. A new lesson focuses on election polling. www.pewresearch.org/course/publi...
How do polls work? What are the different kinds of polls? And what should you look for in a high-quality opinion poll? A Pew Research Center survey methodologist answers these questions and more in si...
"The majority of abortions in the U.S. now involve pills, according to both the CDC and Guttmacher. The CDC says 56% of U.S. abortions in 2021 involved pills, up from 53% in 2020 and 44% in 2019."
The U.S. abortion rate has generally declined since the 1980s, but there have been slight upticks in the late 2010s and early 2020s.
There is a "Worm Moon" coming on March 25, so I suppose there is also a....
Relatively few Americans (22%) say they are closely following news about the Israel-Hamas war, and only about half can correctly report that more Palestinians than Israelis have died since the war’s start. On many attitude questions about the war, sizable numbers express no opinion