After a year marked by numerous national elections across the EU, POLITICO Poll of Polls continues to track voting intention trends for the upcoming national elections and combines them into an EU-wide seat tracker. 🗳️ The full report is available exclusively to POLITICO Pro Analysis subscribers 6/6
🤝 The scenario analysis predicts a clear majority for the longstanding “grand coalition plus” formed by EPP, S&D, and RE. So the center holds, but the right-wing surge continues. The sometimes discussed alliance of EPP, ECR, and RE would again fall short of a majority based on our seat estimate. 5/
✨Our exclusive analysis, with polling trends from all 27 EU countries, assigns seats of new unaffiliated parties, resulting in a comprehensive seat estimate. The full breakdown of our scenario analysis: - EPP: 175 seats - S&D: 145 - ECR: 91 - ID: 91 - RE: 87 - Greens: 47 - Left: 33 - NI: 51 4/
📈 With the Dutch election results in, the far-right Identity and Democracy (ID) group surges in the seat tracker, catching up with the European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR) at 91 seats. A noteworthy shift that leaves Renew Europe (RE) statistically tied with these two groups for 3rd place. 3/
Kudos to @ivobantel.bsky.social@pollofpolls.bsky.social data. 🏛️ The center-right European People’s Party (EPP) continues to lead with 175 seats, maintaining its edge over the center-left Socialists and Democrats (S&D) group at 145 seats. 2/
📊 New polling analysis by the POLITICO Research & Analysis Division for the 2024 European Parliament election shows significant shifts in the EU's political landscape. We published our new EP election report with 6 months to go until the European Parliament election. 🚀Here are my main takeaways:
POLITICO Poll of Polls — European Parliament elections polls, trends and election news www.politico.eu/europe-poll-...
All polls, trends and election news for the European Parliament elections presented by POLITICO Poll of Polls
Who's ahead in the polls in Germany? Our current poll of polls: CDU/CSU: 30% (+6) AfD: 22% (+11) SPD: 15% (-11) Greens: 14% (-1) FDP: 5% (-6) Left: 4% (-1) +/- vs. 2021 result
Who's ahead in the polls in the United Kingdom? Our current poll of polls: Lab: 43% (+11) Con: 25% (-18) Lib Dems: 11% (=) Reform: 8% (+6) Greens: 6% (+3) SNP: 3% (-1) +/- vs. 2019 result
Who's ahead in the polls in Romania? Our current poll of polls: PSD: 30% (+1) AUR: 19% (+10) PNL: 19% (-6) USR: 11% SOS: 5% UDMR: 4% (-1) +/- vs. 2020 result
