waaaaaay too much poll dooming happening for the amount of movement that's actually there (minimal). stop looking at the stupid forecasts

Stancil has progressed to dooming based on early vote numbers

Fuck Numbers

Polls become less useful when people are already voting, and uh, they be voting.

If you start from the assumption that a systematic polling miss of 2-3 points is normal, then your expectations for the election right now should be fundamentally the same as what they were a month ago.

Polls always lag about a week or two... and kamala had a rough week last week or so. That's what we're seeing now. Next week after this trump mess there will almost certainly be some movement for kamala.

52-48 Trump in a forecast is not meaningfully different than 52-48 Harris.

Remember Nate silver's job is to bring players into the casino

I’ll have you know I’d be panicking no matter what the polls said

I mean though there’s not much else I can do. I voted. I’m too far from any swing state to volunteer. I don’t have the social skills to phone bank. It’s the equivalent of watching the pregame show. You know it doesn’t matter what the announcers say but you still want to hear good things.