A few data points on Sarmat. The earliest mention in my blog was in 2009 russianforces.org/blog/2009/12...russianforces.org/blog/2011/05...russianforces.org/blog/2018/03... 2/2
I'm truly puzzled that the story about the failed test of the Sarmat missile got that much attention. Here is my post with some links russianforces.org/blog/2024/09... 1/
Definitely no nuclear warhead
There was one success, in April 2022. Plus one or two failures (not counting this one). See russianforces.org/blog/2024/09...
I've argued (and still believe) that one reason the doctrine didn't go in the direction of preventive strikes in 2010 is that it would have been so much against the prevailing trend at the time, with nuclear weapons free world etc. These things matter dx.doi.org/10.1080/1073... 3/3
The actual doctrine, adopted in 2010, contains the language that is familiar now - the threat to the very existence of the state etc: russianforces.org/blog/2010/02... It does seem that this language has worked as a constraint in 2022-24. Which is why RU wants to change it. 2/
With the talk about changes in Russian nuclear doctrine in the air, it may be worth remembering the last time it was discussed, in 2009. At some point it seemed the doctrine would allow preemptive strikes, even "in local wars." See russianforces.org/blog/2009/10... It didn't in the end 1/
SDI did not end the Cold War. While “the [USSR] expressed serious concerns about US missile defense programs, SDI was not a decisive factor in advancing arms control negotiations. … The [USSR] quickly identified ways to avoid a technological arms race ….” scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs2...
Most accounts of President control of nuclear weapons assert that it is either a) inherent to the power of the President under the Constitution (as Commander in Chief), b) codified in law, and/or c) started with the order to use the bomb in World War II. All of these are essentially incorrect.
"The international community must double down on its message that nuclear threats are inadmissible" Brief piece that I wrote for the European Leadership Network: "Quieting the nuclear rattle: Responding to Russia’s tactical nuclear weapons exercises" www.europeanleadershipnetwork.org/commentary/q...
