A few data points on Sarmat. The earliest mention in my blog was in 2009 russianforces.org/blog/2009/12...russianforces.org/blog/2011/05...russianforces.org/blog/2018/03... 2/2
Definitely no nuclear warhead
There was one success, in April 2022. Plus one or two failures (not counting this one). See russianforces.org/blog/2024/09...
I've argued (and still believe) that one reason the doctrine didn't go in the direction of preventive strikes in 2010 is that it would have been so much against the prevailing trend at the time, with nuclear weapons free world etc. These things matter dx.doi.org/10.1080/1073... 3/3
The actual doctrine, adopted in 2010, contains the language that is familiar now - the threat to the very existence of the state etc: russianforces.org/blog/2010/02... It does seem that this language has worked as a constraint in 2022-24. Which is why RU wants to change it. 2/
SDI did not end the Cold War. While “the [USSR] expressed serious concerns about US missile defense programs, SDI was not a decisive factor in advancing arms control negotiations. … The [USSR] quickly identified ways to avoid a technological arms race ….” scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs2...
Most accounts of President control of nuclear weapons assert that it is either a) inherent to the power of the President under the Constitution (as Commander in Chief), b) codified in law, and/or c) started with the order to use the bomb in World War II. All of these are essentially incorrect.
The exercise will also involve air force and fleet units. But the emphasis appears to be on Iskanders. One question is whether 12GUMO will participate. Here is a brief description of deployment procedures russianforces.org/blog/2022/10... The image shows some relevant sites in the area 2/2
How exactly it is linked to some nuclear weapons in space is unclear. The good news is that, in Stewart's words "this is not an active capability that has already been deployed." So, no nuclear weapons in space yet. Good to know. But Cosmos-2553 deserves a closer look. 8/8
Now, there is not much information about this satellite. But there is some. So far, Cosmos-2553 is believed to be a radar satellite, although it has also been linked to programs that studied the impact of ionizing radiation on satellites. 7/