The problem comes when you have to explain it to someone you're training. One of my first bosses had such a defeated tone by the time I'd told like the 5th new hire that I just "make it up" after they asked how I knew to make certain changes to a forecast. 😂

2 jobs and 3 bosses later, I'm still that kind of menace. "How do you know when convection will start/when the models have the timing wrong???" "Idk, vibes basically"