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SPC Tornado/Severe Thunderstorm Alerts (UNOFFICIAL)
@spc-storms.nws-bot.us
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SPC Oct 3, 2024 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook ⛈️NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST🌪️ Additional Details Here.

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0236 PM CDT Thu Oct 03 2024 Valid 032000Z - 041200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast. However, a few strong storms are expected over parts of Iowa tonight. ...20Z Update... Scattered storms persist across the central FL Peninsula within a moist easterly flow regime south of the upper ridge. Moderate instability may support locally strong gusts within the diurnal and weakly sheared regime. To the west, a small area of strong thunderstorm potential is forecast from IA into northwest IL after 06Z, in association with a shortwave trough moving across the upper MS Valley. Lift near the 850 mb front along with steepening lapse rates may yield an elevated cluster of storms forming over south-central IA. Radar presentation of the initial activity may indicate hail in the strongest storm cores, but this may be short lived due to merging updrafts over time. While severe hail is not currently forecast, at least small hail appears likely. ..Jewell.. 10/03/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1123 AM CDT Thu Oct 03 2024/ ...Synopsis/Discussion... Morning surface observations depict a southwest/northeast-oriented quasi-stationary boundary extending from the central Plains into the Mid/Upper MS Valley. Within the base of a large-scale trough over the north-central CONUS, an embedded shortwave trough and related lift will overspread the boundary during the overnight/early morning hours. The associated low-level mass response will favor the east-northeastward movement of a weak frontal-wave low along the boundary -- promoting isolated to widely scattered elevated thunderstorms atop the frontal surface in the 06-12Z time frame (generally focused over eastern IA and northwest IL). Around 30-40 kt of effective shear could lead to a couple embedded cells capable of small to marginally severe hail initially, though the steeper midlevel lapse-rate plume and favorable instability should be displaced to the south of this activity -- generally limiting the severe threat.
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SPC Tornado/Severe Thunderstorm Alerts (UNOFFICIAL)
@spc-storms.nws-bot.us
Unofficial bot sharing alerts from SPC Tornado/Severe Thunderstorm Watches. This account is not monitored. Contact @wandrme.paxex.aero if needed.
19 followers1 following27 posts
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