BLUE
Login
ST
SPC Tornado/Severe Thunderstorm Alerts (UNOFFICIAL)
@spc-storms.nws-bot.us
Unofficial bot sharing alerts from SPC Tornado/Severe Thunderstorm Watches. This account is not monitored. Contact @wandrme.paxex.aero if needed.
19 followers1 following29 posts
STspc-storms.nws-bot.us

SPC Oct 4, 2024 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook ⛈️THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN IOWA🌪️ Additional Details Here.

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0749 PM CDT Thu Oct 03 2024 Valid 040100Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN IOWA...ADJACENT NORTHEASTERN MISSOURI AND WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS... ...SUMMARY... An area of developing thunderstorms overnight may pose a risk for small to marginally severe hail across parts of southeastern Iowa, adjacent northeastern Missouri and west central Illinois. ...01Z Update... Within the mid-latitude westerlies, one notable short wave trough is forecast to continue digging across the northern Great Plains Red River Valley toward the upper Great Lakes region tonight. The southern periphery of the surrounding cyclonic mid/upper-level flow currently curves across southern Nebraska through the Missouri/Iowa border vicinity, where it is beginning to overspread an initially quasi-stationary frontal zone. Models suggest that this regime will become increasingly divergent late this evening into the overnight hours, contributing to increasing forcing for ascent. Lower/mid-level ascent is already increasing across Iowa and surrounding portions of the Missouri Valley/Upper Midwest, in response to warm advection. It appears that this will lead to increasing thunderstorm development by 05-07Z across parts of central/southern Iowa, where guidance indicates a corridor of modest destabilization is possible associated with weak elevated moisture return above the frontal zone. Forecast soundings indicate most unstable CAPE may increase in excess of 1000 J/kg along this corridor, in the presence of modest potential cloud-bearing layer shear. Thermodynamic profiles may include sufficiently cool mid-levels (and steep lapse rates) to support a risk for marginally severe hail (up to around 1 inch or so in diameter) in a few of the stronger storms. ..Kerr.. 10/04/2024
Day 1 Outlook Image
0
ST
SPC Tornado/Severe Thunderstorm Alerts (UNOFFICIAL)
@spc-storms.nws-bot.us
Unofficial bot sharing alerts from SPC Tornado/Severe Thunderstorm Watches. This account is not monitored. Contact @wandrme.paxex.aero if needed.
19 followers1 following29 posts
HomePopularExplore