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SPC Tornado/Severe Thunderstorm Alerts (UNOFFICIAL)
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SPC Oct 5, 2024 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook ⛈️THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN WISCONSIN AND THE UPPER PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN🌪️ Additional Details Here.

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 PM CDT Sat Oct 05 2024 Valid 052000Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN WISCONSIN AND THE UPPER PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms may produce large hail and isolated gusty/damaging winds across parts of northern Wisconsin and Michigan this evening and overnight. ...20z Update... The prior forecast remains valid with no changes. Observational trends and the latest hi-res model data show upper 50s to low 60s F surface dewpoints reaching northern WI and MI by 22-00z. Rapid destabilization favorable for weakly buoyant, mostly elevated parcels is expected ahead of the fast-moving cold front by early evening. A mix of banded and supercellular elements is possible along the front with the primary risk being large hail and isolated damaging gusts. While buoyancy is expected to be limited, favorable deep-layer shear and strong forcing for ascent should support a few more organized and stronger storms through this evening. See the previous discussion for more information. ..Lyons.. 10/05/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1124 AM CDT Sat Oct 05 2024/ ...Upper Midwest into the Great Lakes... A pronounced upper trough over the northern High Plains and Canadian Prairie provinces will continue moving east today, reaching Ontario and the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes by Sunday morning. A strong surface low over Saskatchewan/Manitoba will develop eastward into northwest Ontario in associated with the upper low, as a trailing cold front sweeps eastward across the Upper Midwest. Low-level moisture return ahead of this cold front will remain fairly modest with northward extent, with surface dewpoints generally reaching into the 50s. Rapid northeastward advection of an EML is also anticipated this afternoon across the northern/central Plains into the Upper Midwest. An associated cap will likely prevent thunderstorm development until this evening, when stronger ascent with the approach of the upper trough overspreads northern WI/MI. Thunderstorm development should occur this evening along/near the cold front in northern WI and the U.P. of MI, with storms generally tending to remain slightly elevated. MUCAPE in the 500 to 1000 J/kg range and strong shear in the cloud-bearing layer will support a few stronger/organized updrafts. The risk for large hail will exist initially with more discrete development given the steep mid-level lapse rates and strong deep-layer shear. A more linear mode should quickly develop as storms move east-northeastward across northern WI/MI tonight. Although there may be some tendency for the boundary layer to stabilize this evening with the loss of daytime heating, an isolated threat for strong/locally damaging winds may exist given the expected strength of the low/mid-level flow accompanying the upper trough.
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SPC Tornado/Severe Thunderstorm Alerts (UNOFFICIAL)
@spc-storms.nws-bot.us
Unofficial bot sharing alerts from SPC Tornado/Severe Thunderstorm Watches. This account is not monitored. Contact @wandrme.paxex.aero if needed.
20 followers1 following44 posts
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