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SPC Tornado/Severe Thunderstorm Alerts (UNOFFICIAL)
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SPC Oct 9, 2024 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook ⛈️THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA🌪️ Additional Details Here.

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0745 AM CDT Wed Oct 09 2024 Valid 091300Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... Several tornadoes are likely today and tonight across parts of the central/southern Florida Peninsula in association with Hurricane Milton. ...Florida... Hurricane Milton will continue moving northeastward today per the latest NHC forecast track, making landfall along the west-central FL Gulf Coast by tonight. South-southeasterly low-level flow has been steadily increasing this morning across the Keys and south FL per VWPs from KBYX/KAMX. A corresponding increase in low-level (0-1 km) shear has also been noted from the 12Z observed soundings at KEY/MFL. As Hurricane Milton approaches the central/southern FL Peninsula later today, southerly 850 mb flow is expected to strengthen even more across these areas through the afternoon and evening. This will further enhance effective SRH and potential for supercells. Filtered daytime heating over the FL Peninsula away from ongoing precipitation should prove instrumental in helping surface-based convection become established and aiding in the development of weak to moderate instability this afternoon, as low levels are already rather moist (mid to upper 70s surface dewpoints) along/south of a weak baroclinic zone draped across the central FL Peninsula. Current expectations are for ongoing confluence bands off the southwest FL Coast and far south FL to persist through the rest of the morning. Convection within these outer rain bands will likely strengthen through the day as diurnal heating aids in steepening of low-level lapse rates, and as shear increases with Milton's approach. Multiple supercells should develop and persist within these bands in a rather favorable thermodynamic and kinematic environment that will support updraft rotation and the potential for several tornadoes. The greatest tornado potential should be focused this afternoon and evening across parts of central and south FL, generally along/south of where a weak surface front is forecast to reside. A strong tornado (EF-2) could occur in this zone where low-level shear is forecast to be maximized, but confidence remains somewhat low given the tropical nature of thunderstorms anticipated. The tornado threat will continue this evening and gradually shift eastward across the FL Peninsula tonight through early Thursday morning, before eventually waning/moving offshore. ..Gleason/Jewell.. 10/09/2024
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SPC Tornado/Severe Thunderstorm Alerts (UNOFFICIAL)
@spc-storms.nws-bot.us
Unofficial bot sharing alerts from SPC Tornado/Severe Thunderstorm Watches. This account is not monitored. Contact @wandrme.paxex.aero if needed.
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