SB
Stephen Bush
@stephenkb.bsky.social
Associate editor and columnist @financialtimes.com. Post too often about culture, public policy, management, politics, nerd stuff. Tongue usually in cheek. Try my UK politics newsletter for free here: www.ft.com/tryinsidepolitics
17.5k followers1.7k following19.6k posts
Thought occurs that since 1970, only two elections have had the same dynamic in terms of party competition as the one that came before (1987 and 2001).
Was gonna say Feb and Dec 1974 but wow the vote share shifted (even if seat numbers didn’t so much).
My version of this is "New Governments nearly always gain seats when up for re-election" which is true (1955, 1966. 1974 Oct, 1983, & 2015) BUT 1970, 1974 Feb, & 2001 are the exceptions + Labour badly underperforms in 74, Tories somehow lose vote share in 83 & Coalition loses seats on net in 2015
One for popular vote obsessives to ponder: Labour's % in 1979 was functionally the same as in February 1974.
SB
Stephen Bush
@stephenkb.bsky.social
Associate editor and columnist @financialtimes.com. Post too often about culture, public policy, management, politics, nerd stuff. Tongue usually in cheek. Try my UK politics newsletter for free here: www.ft.com/tryinsidepolitics
17.5k followers1.7k following19.6k posts