Overall while obviously new ideas are important I think there’s a lot to be said for talking about the manner of governing as well as the ideas behind it. And also not forgetting the core “do no harm” maxim.

Ask about biggest mistakes the party made in office and they are delivery related (waiting lists and immigration) or trust related (party-gate, infighting) - rather than ideological positioning.

And among Conservative voters there is a desire for pragmatism, people are more likely to want a winner than someone who shares all their values, and there is little appetite among public for the Party to swing left or right.

When asked post election what Conservatives are like at their best creating economic stability came top, followed by putting Britain’s interests first, maintaining law & order & cutting taxes. All mainstream Tory principles rather than more idiosyncratic ideological frames.

The pressure at a party conference during a leadership election is to come up with lots of eye catching ideas that appeal to activists. But particularly among former Conservative voters, having a less divided party is seen as an even more important success criteria than vision.

An electoral risk according to @luketryl.bsky.social for 2 or 3 reasons. Would appeal to Reform voters, but would be unpopular in Blue Wall. [Can't we call it the Yellow Wall now]. But bigger issue is it seems the wrong thing to give salience too, and for many too much a revival of Brexit divides

🆕 After some tough headlines this week the Starmer slide in approval has continued. His net approval now sits at -27, roughly the same level as Rishi Sunak was at when he called the election and a fall of 38 points since July.

Thought occurs that since 1970, only two elections have had the same dynamic in terms of party competition as the one that came before (1987 and 2001).

No real change in the big issues either though having ticked up after the riots levels of immigration, channel crossings and crime are all trending down having spiked as top issues following the riots.

🆕 Mid Conference season voting intention shows not very much has changed in September. Labour’s lead remains at 4 points. 🌹LAB 30% (+1), 🌳CON 26% (+1) ➡️REF UK 18% (NC) 🔶LIB DEM 13% (-1) 💚GRN 8% (NC) 🟡SNP 3% (NC) 24-25/9 Change with 10-12/9 n= 2080