When will we exceed 1.5C of global warming? As global temperatures rise, it is worth noting that first individual months & then individual years exceed 1.5C above pre-industrial, even though the underlying warming trend has not yet reached 1.5C. A thread of visualisations to illustrate this.

That blue effect is cool, how is that done?

The "threshold" talk is also a distraction. We are seeing the scale of damage that a few months near or above can do. At some unpredictable point on the curve, the rate and scale of the events will exceed the local, then global capacity to respond as infrastructure collapses

It is also worth noting, that - in the context of the Paris Agreement - the 1.5 limit is for long term stabilization, and so far nearly all of the models that reach a long term stabilization below 1.5 do have an overshoot of a few years to decades during the middle of the century.

When will we exceed 1.5C of global warming? Some individual months have already exceeded 1.5C, though most have not. September 2023 is the latest month to be above 1.5C.