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SPC Oct 9, 2024 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook ⛈️THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN A PART OF THE FL EAST COAST🌪️ Additional Details Here.

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1204 PM CDT Wed Oct 09 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN A PART OF THE FL EAST COAST... ...SUMMARY... A brief tornado or two remains possible during the late morning Thursday along the east-central to northeast Florida coast. ...FL Peninsula... Latest NHC forecast has Milton approaching the Space Coast at 12Z Thursday. Convective bands, outside of the inner core near the center, will likely be offshore of the FL Peninsula by this time. This appears to be a highly consistent signal across the 12Z HREF and experimental CAM guidance. As such, tornado potential related to Milton will be substantially diminished by mid-morning tomorrow, and may already by negligible by the start of the D2 period. A low-probability brief tornado risk might linger for a few hours into late morning, where low-level SRH remains enlarged to the northeast of the center, along a portion of the east-central to northeast coast. Farther south, increasingly warm/dry mid-levels coupled with veered low-level flow suggest the tornado threat will remain negligible. ..Grams.. 10/09/2024
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STspc-storms.nws-bot.us

SPC Oct 9, 2024 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook ⛈️THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA🌪️ Additional Details Here.

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0745 AM CDT Wed Oct 09 2024 Valid 091300Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... Several tornadoes are likely today and tonight across parts of the central/southern Florida Peninsula in association with Hurricane Milton. ...Florida... Hurricane Milton will continue moving northeastward today per the latest NHC forecast track, making landfall along the west-central FL Gulf Coast by tonight. South-southeasterly low-level flow has been steadily increasing this morning across the Keys and south FL per VWPs from KBYX/KAMX. A corresponding increase in low-level (0-1 km) shear has also been noted from the 12Z observed soundings at KEY/MFL. As Hurricane Milton approaches the central/southern FL Peninsula later today, southerly 850 mb flow is expected to strengthen even more across these areas through the afternoon and evening. This will further enhance effective SRH and potential for supercells. Filtered daytime heating over the FL Peninsula away from ongoing precipitation should prove instrumental in helping surface-based convection become established and aiding in the development of weak to moderate instability this afternoon, as low levels are already rather moist (mid to upper 70s surface dewpoints) along/south of a weak baroclinic zone draped across the central FL Peninsula. Current expectations are for ongoing confluence bands off the southwest FL Coast and far south FL to persist through the rest of the morning. Convection within these outer rain bands will likely strengthen through the day as diurnal heating aids in steepening of low-level lapse rates, and as shear increases with Milton's approach. Multiple supercells should develop and persist within these bands in a rather favorable thermodynamic and kinematic environment that will support updraft rotation and the potential for several tornadoes. The greatest tornado potential should be focused this afternoon and evening across parts of central and south FL, generally along/south of where a weak surface front is forecast to reside. A strong tornado (EF-2) could occur in this zone where low-level shear is forecast to be maximized, but confidence remains somewhat low given the tropical nature of thunderstorms anticipated. The tornado threat will continue this evening and gradually shift eastward across the FL Peninsula tonight through early Thursday morning, before eventually waning/moving offshore. ..Gleason/Jewell.. 10/09/2024
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BMbmcnoldy.bsky.social

In short: 1) There's more to the story than the category. 2) The track cone is not an impacts cone. The HTI products have been an excellent impact communication tool since they became an operational in 2015: www.weather.gov/srh/tropical...

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STspc-storms.nws-bot.us

SPC Oct 8, 2024 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook ⛈️THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND KEYS🌪️ Additional Details Here.

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1201 PM CDT Tue Oct 08 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND KEYS... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes are possible across the Florida Peninsula and Florida Keys as Hurricane Milton moves across the eastern Gulf of Mexico and Florida on Wednesday into early Thursday. ...Florida... The latest National Hurricane Center forecast calls for Hurricane Milton to make landfall along the west-central Florida coast Wednesday night or early Thursday. As the hurricane tracks northeast across the eastern Gulf on Wednesday, low to midlevel southeasterly flow will increase across the Keys and Peninsula. This will result in increasing SRH and enlarged, looping low-level hodographs amid a very moist airmass (mid 70s F dewpoints). The increasing flow field across Florida will coincide with peak heating, resulting in sufficient instability to maintain isolated stronger updrafts within outer rainbands that may approach the area by afternoon. Favorable conditions for a few tropical cyclone related tornadoes will persist into the nighttime hours. ..Leitman.. 10/08/2024
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STspc-storms.nws-bot.us

SPC Oct 7, 2024 1930 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook ⛈️THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS🌪️ Additional Details Here.

Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0215 PM CDT Mon Oct 07 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes are possible across the Florida Peninsula and Florida Keys as Hurricane Milton moves through on Wednesday. ...Florida... Major Hurricane Milton is forecast by the National Hurricane Center to make landfall along the west coast of Florida Wednesday evening, before moving offshore the east coast of Florida by early Thursday morning. Intense low to midlevel flow associated with the hurricane will overspread much of the Florida Peninsula and the Keys as the system tracks northeast through the period. Forecast soundings indicated enlarged low-level hodographs and SRH increasing to greater than 300 m2/s2 within the eastern semicircle of Milton. Mid-70s F dewpoints will provide sufficient low-level instability, and a risk for a few tornadoes will accompany convection within the rainbands of Milton. ..Leitman.. 10/07/2024
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STspc-storms.nws-bot.us

SPC Oct 7, 2024 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook ⛈️THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND KEYS LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY🌪️ Additional Details Here.

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1201 PM CDT Mon Oct 07 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND KEYS LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY... ...SUMMARY... An isolated tornado threat, associated with Hurricane Milton, may develop Tuesday night into Wednesday morning across the central and southern Florida Peninsula and the Keys. ...Florida... No changes have been made to the Marginal risk (level 1 of 5) across parts of the FL Peninsula and Keys on Tuesday into early Wednesday. Major Hurricane Milton is forecast by the National Hurricane Center to track northeast on Tuesday, coming closer to the FL west coast by the end of period/Wednesday morning. As the system develops northeast across the eastern Gulf, strengthening low and midlevel southerly flow will overspread the Keys into the southern/central Peninsula, mainly after the 03z-06z time frame. As this occurs, low-level SRH will increase, resulting in enlarged and favorably curved hodographs and supporting rotation within cells in the far outer bands of Milton. Surface dewpoints in the mid 70s F are already in place, and will provide sufficient low-level instability to support the potential for a couple of tornadoes late Tuesday night into early Wednesday. ..Leitman.. 10/07/2024
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STspc-storms.nws-bot.us

SPC Oct 6, 2024 1930 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook ⛈️THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA🌪️ Additional Details Here.

Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 PM CDT Sun Oct 06 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... An isolated tornado threat, associated with Milton, may develop Tuesday night across parts of the western Florida Peninsula. ...Florida... Hurricane Milton is forecast by the National Hurricane Center to track northeast across the eastern Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday, approaching the FL west coast by early Wednesday morning. Strengthening deep-layer flow within the eastern semicircle of the hurricane will begin to overspread the FL Keys and portions of the Peninsula Tuesday night. As this occurs, low-level hodographs will become enlarged and favorably curved as SRH increases. Forecast dewpoints in the mid 70s F will provide sufficient low-level instability, and a risk for a couple of tornadoes is expected Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning across portions of the Peninsula and Keys. ..Leitman.. 10/06/2024
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viviinfo.bsky.social

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STspc-storms.nws-bot.us

SPC Oct 5, 2024 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook ⛈️THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN OHIO🌪️ Additional Details Here.

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1231 PM CDT Sat Oct 05 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN OHIO...WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND NEW YORK...AND THE NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible Sunday afternoon and evening across parts of eastern Ohio, western New York and Pennsylvania, and West Virginia. ...Upper Ohio Valley/Lower Great Lakes vicinity... An upper trough over the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes will develop east on Sunday, becoming oriented from James Bay to the Mid-Atlantic coast by Monday morning. As the trough shifts east, a belt of 45-60 kt westerly flow from 700-500 mb will overspread the Upper Ohio Valley/Lower Great Lakes vicinity. At the surface, a cold front will develop east across much of the Midwest, extending across central OH to southern MO/IL by midday. A narrow corridor of low 60s F dewpoints will develop ahead of the cold front across the Upper Ohio Valley. Cooling aloft/steepening midlevel lapse rates will overlap modest boundary-layer moisture to support a belt of 500-1500 J/kg MLCAPE along/just ahead of the eastward-advancing cold front. Forecast soundings show mostly unidirectional southwesterly deep-layer flow as low-level winds are expected to veer ahead of the cold front. However, near-surface winds around 15 kt will rapidly increase with height to 40-50 kt around 700 mb. This will provide sufficient low-level hodograph curvature and SRH such that a tornado or two will be possible with any initial semi-discrete supercells that can develop. However, the cold front is expected to progress east fairly quickly and bowing line segments will become more likely with time, supporting a risk for damaging gusts. Isolated large hail also is possible, mainly early in storm evolution when storm mode will be more favorable. While overall spatial/temporal extent of severe potential will be somewhat limited, the overall environment supports introducing a Slight risk (level 2 of 5) with this outlook cycle. ..Leitman.. 10/05/2024
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JBmissjbastos.bsky.social

" ... Ready-ah? The fire & action you all loved is making a massy massy massy arrival in Japan! #Jawan hits the screens in Japan on 29th Nov, 2024! " Via SRH ❤🕊

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