As we explain, “decisions and actions in times of ecological crisis must be taken, but given the situation of true uncertainty, they must be taken through the exercise of judgement, as well as with ‘prudence and humility’ (Knight, 1921: 375).” 9/9

We consider crises as critical moments when international actors must act while facing the problem of uncertainty & we show that IR studies struggle to sort out the processes underpinning decisions and actions taken in such crisis moments. 2/9

3) Finally, new developments in green central banking, particularly the “Green Swan” report by BIS are illustrations of Knight’s exercise of judgment in acknowledging the true uncertainty of future states of the world. 7/9

2) Recent financial sustainability reporting standards of the IFRS Foundation bring the ecological crisis into the realm of Knightian statistical probabilities. 6/9

1) The System of Environmental-Economic Accounting of the UN which provides biophysical statistics for environmental dimensions of economic activities is close to what Knight calls “estimates of probability”. 5/9

We illustrate our argument with the global ecological crisis and its uncertainty. We present 3 contrasting methods used by international actors to convert the time of the ecological crisis into decisions and actions. 4/9

We draw on Frank Knight 3 methods to reduce uncertainty based on distinct probabilistic calculus to anticipate future states of the world. While devised to explain the origins of profits in a capitalist economy, the methods can also inform IR conceptualization of crises. 3/9

12/ As the article concludes: “we hope that professors and researchers elsewhere can build upon Atlantic Diagonals to eventually produce and diffuse new, pluralist, and decentred knowledge beyond the anglosphere and spark interest in further collaborative teaching avenues.”

11/ Not only the toolkit is described in the article, but we also make the syllabi and evaluation grids in French and Spanish available in appendices. Above all, do not hesitate to contact us if you want to reproduce the experiment, and maybe collaborate in the future!

10/ Obviously, we encountered many challenges, most of them related to communication and logistical issues, not only with students, but also between the teaching team. But at the end, none was unsurmountable!