Agree with that. All incumbents are doing terribly. Republicans might ask why it's close (if they weren't so far gone)

That's a good one. I suspect they would have lost, simply because people hate inflation and high interest rates so much.

But then, large majority. Maybe Reform would've eaten into the Conservative vote anyway, since the coalition Johnson put together was so flimsy, and immigration would've risen markedly.

I think no inflation means no COVID, which is why the what if doesn't really work. But I just want to tease out how much of this is about "trust" and "competence", as opposed to ideology

I think Johnson's character and laziness about governing would have got him in the end. That's true. On losing, I'm not so sure. They had a large majority.

Public investment had been rising. There would've been chicanery with tax cuts but that might have helped them, rather than making them look irresponsible.

My answer is they would have won. They still had a large majority. Public services would have been threadbare but just-about-functioning. The weak recovery from COVID, largely as a result of Brexit and then the gas crisis, would have been less weak. People wanted to forget COVID.

Up to you

Workings please

A what if? for Brit politics fans. What if Johnson hadn't held parties, there had been no Truss mini-budget, and there hadn't been the spike in inflation. Would the Conservatives have won the election?