I think no inflation means no COVID, which is why the what if doesn't really work. But I just want to tease out how much of this is about "trust" and "competence", as opposed to ideology

Ah, fair enough, I sort of skimmed that clause to be honest! No COVID or Ukraine? Then yes, I think Johnson's boosterism and Levelling Up might have been enough to hang together a 'we're turning the corner after the Brexit negotiations' narrative and get them over the line.