Without the VAT rise, private school pupil numbers would likely fall by 1% per year, given falls in the number of children Based on past evidence, our @theifs.bsky.social analysis concluded the VAT rise would likely reduce numbers by 3-7% in the medium to long-run, but with lots of uncertainty /2

The short-run effects are likely to be small as parents would likely try to avoid changing school mid-way through primary or secondary school BUT, we might get some clues from changing enrolments at key starting points like age 5, 7 and 11 /3