European Summer 2022 was hot and dry leading to wildfires, low river flow and excess mortality. We looked into how well this impactful season was predicted by the ECWMF seasonal forecast system. Turns out it did a surprisingly good job. @antjeweisheimer.bsky.socialdoi.org/10.1002/qj.4...
Boreal summer in 2022 was marked by hot and dry conditions with significant impacts through drought, wildfires and heat-related deaths. We show that aspects of this season were well predicted in adva....
Seasonal forecast skill is usually low for European summer relative to winter for variables like precipitation and winds (though the greenhouse gas trend is strong enough that there is good skill in temperature, see our previous paper on this iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1...)