Overall this work shows that highly impactful summers like 2022 can be predictable, though much of this is derived from GHG trends and soil moisture, rather than atmospheric circulation.
The additional T2m anomalies, beyond the trend (top, right) were driven by a combination of the dry soil moisture and atmospheric circulation anomalies.
However, much of the T2m signal came from the second experiment without ocean ICs (top,middle) – likely driven by the GHG trend.
We performed a set of hindcast experiments to understand the roles of different initial conditions (ICs) – one set with only the 2022 ocean ICs and one with the 2022 atmosphere and land surface ICs and 2022 GHG concentrations. The ocean ICs controlled much of the 2022 jet anomalies
Potential drivers of summer 2022 conditions that we looked at included the cool SSTs in the tropical Pacific, low soil moisture and slightly stronger polar vortex.
Seasonal forecast skill is usually low for European summer relative to winter for variables like precipitation and winds (though the greenhouse gas trend is strong enough that there is good skill in temperature, see our previous paper on this iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1...)
European Summer 2022 was hot and dry leading to wildfires, low river flow and excess mortality. We looked into how well this impactful season was predicted by the ECWMF seasonal forecast system. Turns out it did a surprisingly good job. @antjeweisheimer.bsky.socialdoi.org/10.1002/qj.4...
Boreal summer in 2022 was marked by hot and dry conditions with significant impacts through drought, wildfires and heat-related deaths. We show that aspects of this season were well predicted in adva....
Global temperatures have remained persistently high over the past few months despite fading El Nino conditions in the tropical Pacific. We saw records tied or set in May, June, July, and August. Its only in September 2024 that we are likely to move out of record territory:
Europe had just its warmest summer on record, according to newly released @copernicusecmwf.bsky.social ERA5 data. The previous record only aged two years and was from summer 2022.
